San Jose State vs Boise State Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +260 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
San Jose State (1-4) and Boise State (2-3) will meet on the blue turf for a Mountain West Conference matchup this Saturday night.
Neither team has had the start to the season it had hoped for, but the struggles of one are due in large part to a rough opening schedule — and that's why there's an edge for that team this weekend.
San Jose State Spartans
Five games into the season, and I’m still not exactly sure what the San Jose State offense is supposed to be.
The Spartans didn’t find much success against USC, Oregon State or Toledo, but they beat up on Cal Poly. I didn't believe they had a very good offense, but then last week they had a 93rd-percentile Success Rate performance against an Air Force defense rated 14th by SP+.
On the year, SJSU ranks 76th in Success Rate but just 128th in Finishing Drives. The Spartans love to pass the ball, as they rank 10th in passing play rate. However, they haven’t been good at it, ranking 98th in Passing Success Rate and 121st in Passing PPA.
While they don’t run very often, this is where they have found some success. SJSU ranks 45th in Rushing Success Rate, 15th in rushing explosiveness and 26th in Rushing PPA. Boise State’s defense will provide the Spartans with the opportunity to run the ball, but I’m not sure they will be able to capitalize.
Unfortunately for SJSU, the defense is as confounding as the offense. This unit has been crushed by most of its opponents this year. It ranks 119th in Defensive Success Rate and 119th in Finishing Drives.
The rushing defense is especially bad, coming in at 122nd in Success Rate and 128th in PPA as compared to 69th and 84th in these two categories, respectively, against the pass.
Boise State Broncos
Boise State has been an equally confusing team this season.
The Broncos were on the wrong end of luck against Memphis last week in a game they deserved to win. But the week before that, they probably should have lost to a bad San Diego State team.
The Broncos rank 41st in Success Rate this season and 59th in Finishing Drives. With a balanced approach, Boise ranks 14th in Rushing Success Rate and 90th in Passing Success Rate. The Broncos should be able to exploit the Spartans' poor run defense if they lean into it.
The passing defense for Boise State has been better on a down-to-down basis, but the rushing defense has been better at preventing the big play. The Broncos rank 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed but 42nd in rushing explosiveness. Through the air, they're 77th in Success Rate Allowed but 124th in explosiveness and 125th in PPA.
This defense will need to pick it up if the Broncos want to have any shot at competing for the conference title this season, but that doesn’t appear likely at the moment.
San Jose State vs Boise State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Boise State match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 124 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 117 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 107 | |
Boise State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 118 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 127 |
| PFF Coverage | 57 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 126 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (88) | 26.5 (60) |
| Rush Rate | 43.4% (124) | 51.2% (69) |
San Jose State vs Boise State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Every FBS opponent San Jose State has played this season currently ranks in the top 50 in Passing Success Rate Allowed. This Boise State defense will be the worst unit the Spartans have faced.
Every opposing offense SJSU has played ranks in the top 25 in Success Rate, making Boise State once again the worst FBS opponent the Spartans have faced thus far.
The tough start to the schedule has been a drag on San Jose State’s ratings. The Spartans' defensive metrics are poor and their offense hasn’t found much success, but Boise represents an opportunity for both of their units to take a step in the right direction.
As the inferior team playing on the road, San Jose State is expected to lose this game. But the spread should be much lower than the 9.5 points the market is currently pricing it at.
I think the Spartans keep this a one-possession game.
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