NC State vs. Duke Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
The NC State Wolfpack head a half hour northwest to take on the Duke Blue Devils in an interstate conference matchup Saturday night.
NC State is showing a bit of vulnerability this season. It barely pulled away from a struggling Virginia team, lost to Louisville, and found itself in a close, high-scoring affair with Marshall last week. Despite the 4-2 record, head coach Dave Doeren isn’t happy with how his squad has competed.
This will be Duke’s first game after its bye week that followed a tough loss to Notre Dame. Amidst that, the Blue Devils also took a blow at the quarterback position, as Riley Leonard is currently dealing with a high ankle sprain.
So, where does the betting value lie in this NC State vs. Duke matchup? Let's take a look at the odds and make a pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 14.
NC State Wolfpack
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The Wolfpack’s record may look good, but this is a program still trying to learn about itself.
The defensive side of the ball is fine, but offensively, they still lack an identity. They have an inability to create explosive plays and rank 84th in Havoc Allowed.
Many expected this NC State team to be led by Brennan Armstrong, but after a disappointing five-game stretch, the star transfer was benched. Last week, sophomore quarterback MJ Morris led the Wolfpack to a win in his first start of the season.
Morris definitely has a lot to learn, as he threw three interceptions and completed just 53% of his passes against Marshall. However, he also threw for four touchdowns and formed a solid chemistry with wide receiver KC Concepcion.
Concepcion has been the star of this team, averaging 11 yards per catch. He had a stellar performance last week, going for 102 yards and two scores. The true freshman is definitely someone to keep an eye on.
When Armstrong was benched, Doeren admitted that his team needed a spark from the quarterback position. The Wolfpack currently rank 97th in Passing Success Rate.
The run game was heavily built by Armstrong. He leads the team in yards, but until further notice, we may not see him take the field again. NC State’s rushing metrics are a little skewed by how effective Armstrong was on the ground, so it’ll mainly be a committee with Michael Allen and Delbert Mimms.
Mimms isn’t a player who racks up a ton of yards, but he finds the end zone when needed. Allen is more of a downfield back who averages about 5.5 yards per carry.
As mentioned, the defense is fine, keeping teams off schedule at a decent rate and ranking 41st in Havoc. The Pack have a decent secondary, but linebacker Payton Wilson has been the star of the show. The grad student leads the team in tackles and tackles for loss and ranks second in sacks.
Stopping the run is what this unit really excels at. Wilson’s presence is huge as well as edge rusher Savion Jackson. They’re currently ranked 38th in Success Rate against the run, which bodes well against a Duke team that likes to run the ball.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke is in a bit of a bind.
Leonard has had a wonderful year, but he suffered a high ankle sprain against Notre Dame two weeks ago. The bye came at a good time for the Blue Devils, but Leonard’s status is still up in the air. If Leonard can’t go, it’ll be up to redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV.
This program has truly transformed itself into a solid football school. Offensively, Duke stands in the upper echelon of programs this year, ranking 27th in Success Rate and 30th in Finishing Drives.
The Blue Devils like to run the ball a lot, but they do it efficiently and with some pop. They currently rank 47th in Success Rate, 34th in PPA and 21st in explosiveness.
Leonard has been a big part of that, but Jordan Waters is the premiere back. He averages nearly six yards per carry and has found the end zone eight times already.
Throughout the year, Leonard has found himself some quality weapons through the air. Both Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore have nearly identical numbers, averaging 13 yards per catch.
A knock for this receiving corps is that they don’t make a ton of big plays. They rank 126th in passing play explosiveness, but they have the ability to stay on schedule.
Defensively, I think this team is a bit two-faced. It excels at defending the pass but really struggles against the run.
The defensive passing play metrics look elite. This team is the 17th-best at defending the pass and ranks fifth in preventing explosiveness.
Cornerback Brandon Johnson does an incredible job in the secondary, as does Joshua Pickett. Not only that, but Da’Quan Johnson and Jaylen Stinson grade among the highest in coverage on the team.
Stopping the run is an issue, though. Tre Freeman and Dorian Mausi are solid run-stoppers, but they’re not game-breakers. Against the run, the Blue Devils rank 79th in Success Rate and 70th in PPA, which could pose a problem in tonight’s game.
NC State vs Duke
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Duke match up statistically:
NC State Offense vs. Duke Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 5 | |
Duke Offense vs. NC State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 76 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 45 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 26 | 57 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 30 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 47 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (61) | 28.6 (94) |
| Rush Rate | 53.4% (59) | 57.2% (28) |
NC State vs Duke
Betting Pick & Prediction
What poses a lot of intrigue to me about this game is the uncertainty regarding Leonard. As of Thursday, no answer has been provided, and the closer it gets to game time, the more it seems like Belin will start.
Based on the optimism coming out of NC State, it also looks like Morris will get his second consecutive start. This will be a true test for the sophomore, as he’ll be facing a potent secondary.
This will be the perfect opportunity for the Wolfpack to try and get their run game on track. Conversely, it’ll be interesting to see how Duke’s rush reacts to NC State’s frontline. Waters has been the bellcow, but head coach Mike Elko may switch it up and give Jaquez Moore some burn in the backfield.
Not only do the national rankings suggest it, but I do believe Duke is the better team here. The room seems to believe in Belin as well, should he get the nod in this game.
Most books have the spread at -3, and I think Duke will clear that pretty easily. The Blue Devils have covered in 60% of their games this year, and NC State is as inconsistent as can be.
