Friday College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9:15 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about college football being played under the lights before Saturday's massive slate, and we have that in spades tonight.
Friday's college football schedule features three FBS games — Northwestern vs. Maryland, UNLV vs. Utah State and Utah vs. Arizona State — and two FCS games in Harvard vs. Cornell and Prairie View A&M vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
So, whether you're looking to back the only ranked team on the slate in the Utes or bet an Ivy League rivalry, we have you covered.
Read on for college football Friday odds and picks for the NCAAF games on Oct. 11 — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Friday College Football Pick for Harvard vs. Cornell
By Joshua Nunn
The Harvard Crimson (2-1) travel to Ithaca, NY, to do battle with the Cornell Big Red (1-2) on Friday, Oct. 11. This game kicks off at 6 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2.
The Crimson are coming off a five-point, 28-23, win over New Hampshire, while the Big Red got crushed by Albany, 31-10.
Harvard is a favorite of 11.5 points on the spread with a total of 48.5 points.
Here are my Harvard vs. Cornell predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11.
Harvard Crimson
Harvard comes into this one after a home win against New Hampshire. The Crimson fell behind 10-0 but rallied to take firm control behind a solid rushing effort from Xaviah Bascon, who recorded a pair of touchdowns.
The Harvard pass game wasn't overly efficient, but it made up for that with explosive plays, including a 65-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Jaden Craig to Scott Woods II.
Craig has an impressive 6-1 touchdown to interception ratio, while throwing for 599 yards on the season.
The Crimson offense will undoubtedly seek to get the running game firing on all cylinders this week against a struggling Cornell front seven.
Cornell Big Red
Cornell enters fresh off a frustrating 31-10 home loss against Albany. The game was back and forth in the first half, with Cornell holding a 7-6 lead at the halftime despite not forcing an Albany punt.
Cornell really wore down late in the game, providing little resistance to an Albany offensive attack that saw four of its five second-half possessions end with points.
The Big Red offense was able to move the ball against the Great Danes, but it was unable to make plays when it counted. The key difference was two trips inside the Albany 35-yard line, where Cornell was stopped on downs.
Harvard vs. Cornell Prediction
I'm going to play the Crimson here at -11.5. I have some major concerns with the Cornell run defense, and its big win over Yale a couple of weeks ago is looking more and more like an anomaly.
Harvard is going to run the ball a ton in this game, as it has all season. For the season, the Crimson are running on 66% of their offensive snaps.
Going up against a Cornell defense that's given up 674 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per carry in three games is a recipe for success for Harvard.
In three games against FCS competition before playing Cornell, Albany had averaged 69.33 rushing yards per game with an average of 2.6 yards per carry. Colgate was averaging just 3.7 yards per carry before playing Cornell and has deployed a pedestrian rushing attack since.
I look for Bascon and Shane McLaughlin to have big games and for Harvard to stay on the field and extend drives on the ground.
The Harvard defense rebounded nicely coming off of a demoralizing loss at Brown and really did a solid job controlling the New Hampshire passing attack last week. While Seth Morgan did throw for 267 yards, the UNH passing attack was completely shut down for seven straight possessions after scoring on its first three.
Harvard is very familiar with Cornell quarterback Jameson Wang and has had success defending this passing attack the last two years.
It's really concerning to see the Cornell defensive unit getting shredded on the ground week after week. With only two starters back from a unit that was already at the bottom of the Ivy league in total defense, we can't trust the Big Red to step up here.
The offense really showed poorly in its last game against Albany, and Cornell is now going up against a stronger Harvard defense that's dominated the series in recent memory.
Cornell isn't a complete football team, and with the advantages Harvard has on offense and defense, the only way I could play this one would be to back the Crimson.
Pick: Harvard -11.5
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Friday College Football Pick for Northwestern vs. Maryland
By Cody Goggin
The Maryland Terrapins (3-2) are set to host the Northwestern Wildcats (2-3) in a Friday night Big Ten battle in SECU Stadium. Kickoff in College Park is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Wildcats are coming off a 41-24 loss to Indiana while the Terps also lost their last game to the Hoosiers, 42-28.
The Terrapins are 10.5-point favorites in a game with a total of just 45.5 points. These two teams are both 0-2 in conference play and will be looking for their first Big Ten win.
Here's my Northwestern vs. Maryland predictions and my college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats have had a tough start to their conference slate, losing to both Washington and Indiana by double digits. Maryland is a step down from those teams however, so the Wildcats may stand a chance this weekend.
After the first two games of the season, Jack Lausch took over for Mike Wright at quarterback. This change hasn’t paid off yet, as Lausch is averaging -0.29 EPA per drop back compared to -0.07 for Wright.
The Wildcats rank 82nd in success rate, 115th in finishing drives, 108th in explosiveness and 99th in Havoc allowed. They run a 50-50 run-pass split, ranking 73rd in rushing success rate, 83rd in rushing PPA, 89th in passing success rate and 104th in passing PPA.
The Northwestern offensive line has been solid this season, ranking 16th in PFF pass blocking grade and 58th in PFF run blocking grade, meaning the majority of the Havoc allowed is likely coming from the quarterback.
Northwestern ranks 65th in success rate allowed and 16th in finishing drives this season. It's 55th in Havoc generated and 20th in explosiveness allowed.
The Wildcats’ rushing defense has been fantastic, ranking 22nd in success rate, 15th in PPA and third in explosiveness allowed. The issue is that they've faced the run only 36% of the time, which is the second-lowest rate in FBS.
Teams know that the weakness of this team is its passing defense, as it ranks 97th in passing success rate allowed and 97th in PFF coverage grade.
The Wildcats' pass rush is just average as well, ranking 62nd in PFF pass rush grade. However, they're 22nd in passing explosiveness allowed and 56th in passing PPA allowed, as they've forced teams to slowly pass the ball down the field against them rather than allowing big chunk plays.
Maryland Terrapins
This is good news for Maryland, as it skews towards being a pass-heavy team. The Terrapins rank 53rd in offensive success rate, 49th in finishing drives, 55th in havoc allowed and 75th in explosiveness.
Billy Edwards Jr. is averaging 0.22 EPA per drop back this season, with 1,444 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Star receiver Tai Felton has 46 catches already for 644 yards and five touchdowns on the year.
This Maryland passing attack ranks 55th in success rate and 27th in PPA.
The offensive line is by far the biggest issue on this team. Maryland ranks 132nd in PFF run blocking grade and 127th in pass blocking grade this season, as it's possibly the worst unit in the Big Ten.
This may not pop up in this game — as Northwestern doesn’t have a great pass rush — but it's a matchup to watch out for with Maryland.
Maryland ranks 67th in success rate allowed and explosiveness allowed. It's 29th in finishing drives this season and just 105th in Havoc generated.
The Terrapins rank 53rd in passing success rate allowed and 67th in passing PPA allowed. They’re 99th in PFF coverage grade but 25th in pass rush grade, as they've been able to get after the passer.
They rank 84th in rushing success rate allowed, 61st in rushing PPA allowed and 36th in rushing explosiveness allowed this year, as this has been a weak spot in the defense.
Northwestern vs. Maryland Prediction
The biggest unit advantage in this game is likely Maryland’s passing attack against this poor Northwestern secondary.
I think that Edwards and this Terrapins offense will be able to get it done through the air despite their poor pass protection, as Northwestern’s pass rush hasn’t been much better than average and its secondary has been poor.
I don’t have a ton of faith in Maryland’s defense, but I don’t trust Northwestern’s offense, either. Since I don’t have a good read on how this side of the matchup will play out, my favorite bet on this game will be on Maryland’s team total.
At BetMGM right now, you can take Maryland to score over 27.5 points at -140, which I like in this game.
This full-game total has a chance to go over as well, but Northwestern has been too bad on offense this year for me to take on a chance on that bet.
Pick: Maryland Team Total Over 27.5 (-140 · Play to -155)
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Friday College Football Pick for UNLV vs. Utah State
By John Feltman
The UNLV Rebels (4-1, 1-0 MWC) take on the Utah State Aggies (1-4, 0-1) in a Mountain West clash on Friday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV is coming off a wild game last Friday night in Las Vegas, as it lost to Syracuse in a back-and-forth affair. There was a lot of questionable officiating throughout the contest, leaving many Rebels backers in shambles.
The Aggies, meanwhile, have dropped four straight and make a solid case for a bottom-five team in FBS.
Oddsmakers have the Rebels as -19.5 point home favorites and the total set at 66.5.
So, let's dive in and get into my UNLV vs. Utah State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11.
UNLV Rebels
Everyone panicked when former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team due to a NIL deal dispute, as he claimed he did not receive any of the compensation that was agreed upon prior.
It's officially Hajj-Malik Williams' time for Barry Odom's team, and he is a spectacle.
Williams is an upgrade over Sluka, and he's been outstanding in his first two games. He's completing 83% of his passes with six touchdown passes and an interception.
Williams has also been a menace on the ground, averaging over eight yards per carry on 31 carries with two touchdowns. The Rebels run the ball 71% of the time, so you may as well call them a faux-service academy offense.
Receiver Ricky White III seems to make highlight reel plays every week, and he has a 100% catch rate on 29 receptions thus far. He's averaging roughly 13 yards per play and six touchdowns on the season.
The Rebels offense is electric, as the Go-Go offense has become even stronger. Unfortunately for them, they got hosed by a questionable ACC officiating crew last week, and the Rebels would need a lot of help to have a path to the College Football Playoff.
Nonetheless, it's a nice bounce-back opportunity against the Aggies on the road. It's rare to say that in a conference road game, but it's been that type of season in Aggie Land.
UNLV enters the game top-50 in an abundance of offensive metrics, including Havoc Allowed, Line Yards and Passing Success Rate. It has also been excellent in Finishing Drives, and this is a dream matchup against an Aggies defense that has been practically a turn-style on defense in the red zone.
The defensive side of the ball has also been impressive. It did get gashed last week against the Orange, but it can still go nonetheless.
The Rebels should have no issues against a bad Aggies offense, especially since they're 24th in Defensive Havoc. They also have a massive apecial teams edge and should dominate the time of possession.
This has all of the makings of a blowout at Maverik Stadium.
Utah State Aggies
I don't think anybody thought the Aggies were going to be any good entering the season, but they've been dreadful. Their only win came against Robert Morris, and things didn't get much better when they got blitzed by Temple.
Quarterback Spencer Petras returned last week, and he's put up respectable stats thus far. The Iowa transfer has six touchdowns and three interceptions with a 63% completion rate thus far.
The offense loves to go rapidly fast despite ranking outside the bottom 90 in Rushing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed. It sits 42nd in Line Yards, but it has really struggled to establish a reputation as a team that can post nice numbers in Quality Drives or Finishing Drives.
The Rebels defense is excellent at holding strong in its own territory, so I'm having a hard time finding a path for Utah State to score consistently.
The USU defense is even worse, and there's no chance it can keep up with the UNLV offense. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in most defensive metrics, including Line Yards and Havoc.
There's no way Petras and Co. can keep up here. Their best bet would be to try and play keep-away, but with the way they like to run their offense, it seems like it would be nearly impossible to do that.
UNLV vs. Utah State Prediction
This is a smash spot to back UNLV here, and I think the motivation for the remainder of the season will be to hang crooked numbers to bolster its CFP resume.
With Williams under center the past two weeks, we've seen a preview of the upside of the offense when it's clicking on all cylinders. The Aggies defense is in complete disarray, so it should be smooth sailing all evening long.
I am worried about the Rebels taking their foot off the gas late, so I'm going to lay the points with the Rebels in the first half here.
Pick: UNLV 1H -10.5
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Friday College Football Pick for Prairie View A&M vs. UAPB
By Joshua Nunn
The Prairie View A&M Panthers (2-4) take on the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (1-4) in SWAC football action on Friday, Oct. 11th. The game is set to kick off at 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
This marks the second of two FCS games on tonight's slate, along with Harvard vs. Cornell in the Ivy League.
The Panthers enter as a -7.5 favorite with the over/under at 59.5.
Check out my Prairie View A&M vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11 below.
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Prairie View A&M comes into this one off of a tough loss on the road at Incarnate Word.
The Panthers were competitive in the first half but could not contain the UIW offense in the second half. They surrendered 516 total yards and 30 first downs to the Cardinals.
PVAMU has continually rolled out one of the worst defenses in FCS football this season, allowing 395 yards and 36.5 points per game.
Offensively, the Panthers are averaging just 288 yards per game and have really struggled on the ground. The rushing attack has averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on the season, so Prairie View will need to find more success running the ball in order to find be competitive in its remaining games.
PVAMU has split reps at the quarterback position so far with Cameron Peters and Jaden Johnson sharing the load. They have combined to complete 53% of their passes for 1,197 yards and eight touchdowns on the season.
Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Author's Note: UAPB stats noted are excluding games against Arkansas of the SEC and Arkansas Baptist of the NAIA to more accurately reflect competition and game situations that UAPB will see the rest of the season.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff finds itself in the middle of another rough season.
This SWAC bottom-feeder has been on the wrong end of three straight decisions, mostly due to its poor defensive play.
The Lions have surrendered 506 yards and 45 points per game against FCS competition this season and rank in the bottom five of nearly every defensive metric in FCS.
The front seven has been especially bad, giving up 272 rushing yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry during that stretch.
Offensively, the Lions have averaged 321 yards and 24.3 points per game against FCS teams and have been led by quarterback Mekhi Hagens. The redshirt junior has thrown for 251 yards per game with an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last three weeks.
JaVonnie Gibson and Daemon Dawkins are two explosive receivers who have combined for 463 yards and five touchdowns over that span.
Prairie View A&M vs. UAPB Prediction
It's really hard to find much to like about these two struggling SWAC teams, but we do have an opportunity to fade two really bad defenses.
Both teams operate on offense fairly quickly, so they should run upwards of 70-plus plays each.
Each defense has been really bad at allowing explosive plays against them, and they've both been bad in the red zone as well. UAPB has allowed 19 touchdowns on 23 red-zone trips to go along with two red-zone field goals.
The Golden Lions allow 59% of third-down attempts to be converted against them, and they do a bad job of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with only three sacks on the year.
Prairie View A&M has allowed 15 touchdowns and nine field goals in 25 red-zone trips thus far. The Panthers also struggle to get pressure, as they have only 10 sacks through six games this year.
Special teams play favors the over as well.
Prairie View is averaging a net of just 34.6 yards per punt, and UAPB has a net punting average of 30.4 yards. With struggling punters, we could see some short fields that lead to these bad defenses being put in tough positions.
Both PVAMU and UAPB have reliable field-goal operations. Pine Bluff kickers have gone 2-of-2 on field goals and 20-of-20 on PAT attempts this year. Prairie View kicker Guillermo Garcia Rodriguez has gone 9-of-12 on field goals and 15-of-15 on PAT attempts.
My numbers have each team in the 30s, and when the game plays itself out situationally, there's just no way that I can confidently trust either defense to make plays or get the stops necessary to limit scoring.
I expect a ton of yards and quite a bit of scoring in this Friday night SWAC battle. Take the over at 59.5
Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 62.5)
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Friday College Football Pick for Utah vs. Arizona State
The Utah Utes (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) look to rebound from their 23-10 loss to Arizona when they head to Tempe on Friday night to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1, 1-1).
The Utes lost their first game of the season two weeks ago against Arizona in what was a terrible offensive performance.
They had a bye week to rest up and get things figured out, but the question mark in this game is whether or not Cam Rising will play in what has been an ongoing saga all season.
Arizona State had really low expectations coming into the season but has surprised everyone, going 4-1 through its first 5 games. The Sun Devils came from behind to beat Kansas, 35-31, last weekend and will now be looking to knock off the No. 16 team in the country.
ASU has lost its past four meetings against Utah, including a 55-3 defeat in Salt Lake City last season.
My Utah vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11 are below.
Utah Utes
The line for Utah has been bouncing around because of Rising's status. On Sunday, Utah was as low as a 3.5-point favorite, but then on Monday, Utah got bet up to as high as a -6.5 with rumors swirling that Rising might play.
However, this line has settled to back around four points, which indicates Rising may not play.
That means Isaac Wilson would again be the starter, but he really hasn't been that great this season.
The Utes fell behind against Arizona two weeks ago and Wilson was forced to throw the ball 40 times, which didn't end well. He's really only effective in the short-to-intermediate passing game, which should work fine against Arizona State.
Utah needs to capitalize on its scoring opportunities in this game. The Utes outgained Arizona in their previous game, but turnovers and scoring just 10 points on four trips inside the 40-yard line cost them. Arizona State is the worst team in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed, so they should fare better offensively on Friday night.
Utah is likely going to have to lean on its defense to win this game, which isn't a problem because it has one of the best defensive units in the country.
The Utes are second nationally in Success Rate Allowed because they're good against both the run and the pass. Utah ranks top-20 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed, but in this game, the Utes are going to have to stop the run.
They stacked the box and held Ollie Gordon to only 42 yards rushing and have been dominating up front, ranking 26th in Defensive Line Yards and seventh in Stuff Rate.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has had an interesting season.
He's a very good quarterback throwing in the short-to-intermediate range, but as soon as he has to throw the ball deep, he's very limited. Even though the Sun Devils put up 35 points and Leavitt had four touchdown passes against Kansas, he went just 14-for-24 for 157 yards.
The Sun Devils offense centers around running back Cam Skattebo. As Texas Tech found out two games ago, if you can shut Skattebo down, you can pretty much shut down ASU's entire offense.
He's really only had two big games this season — against Kansas and Mississippi State, which are 123rd and 109th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
In fact, Arizona State hasn't faced a top-50 rushing defense yet this season but will now play one of the best.
Defensively, Arizona State is surprisingly in the top 35 in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. I say surprisingly because ASU completely rebuilt its front seven through the transfer portal.
However, Kansas was the first good rushing attack the Sun Devils have seen this season, and Devin Neal averaged over five yards per carry with a pretty high EPA/Rush.
Arizona State has struggled to limit teams' scoring opportunities. The Sun Devils are last in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed, with their opponents averaging 5.2 points every time they cross the 40-yard line. Kansas scored a touchdown all five times they crossed the 40-yard line last Saturday.
Utah vs. Arizona State Prediction
Arizona State is pretty fortunate to be 4-1 right now. Three of its four wins have come by one score, and the fact that the Sun Devils are the worst team in Finishing Drives Allowed is a major red flag for regression.
Even though Utah only scored 10 points against Arizona, it put up close to 400 yards of offense and should be able to move the ball against the Sun Devils.
Skattebo has been one of the best running backs in the country but hasn't faced an elite run defense this season. Additionally, he's padded his stats against two of the worst Power 4 run defenses in the country, so I don't think he'll be that effective on Friday night.
If Rising plays, it will be a big boost to Utah, but even if he doesn't, I still think the Utes are undervalued here on the road. Kyle Whittingham has been profitable against the spread on the road over his career.
Pick: Utah -3.5 via ESPN Bet
