SMU vs Rice Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
Two Texas teams battle in an American Athletic Conference matchup as the SMU Mustangs travel to Houston to face the Rice Owls.
SMU enters this matchup with a 6-2 record and a 4-0 record in conference play. The Mustangs are 5-3 against the spread and have gone under in five games this season.
Rice enters this game with a 4-4 record and is coming off of a close home loss to Tulane. The Owls are 6-2 against the spread and have gone over in five games this year.
Find my betting prediction, pick and preview for SMU vs. Rice below.
SMU Mustangs
After a somewhat disappointing 7-6 debut season, Rhett Lashlee's second season with SMU appears to be back to expectation.
SMU has one of the top-scoring offenses, averaging 40.5 points per game, and has averaged 6.4 yards per play. The Mustangs have a 45% Success Rate and average 4.48 points per opportunity.
SMU averages 34.6 passes per game for an average of 295 passing yards per game. The Mustangs are led by Preston Stone, who's completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 2,138 yards and 19 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
As a team, the Mustangs have a 44% Passing Success Rate and average 4.4 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Mustangs use a balanced offensive attack with a 50% Rush Rate.
They average 37.6 rush attempts per game for an average of 167.9 rushing yards per game. A trio of transfer running backs have over 240 rushing yards on the season for SMU, with Jaylan Knighton leading the bunch with 456 yards and four touchdowns on 83 carries. As a team, SMU has a 46% Rushing Success Rate and averages 4.4 runs of 10 or more yards per game.
While the offense has been the primary strength for SMU, the defense is keeping pace.
SMU ranks fifth in scoring defense at just 14 points allowed per game. The Mustangs have allowed opponents to average just 4.1 yards per play and a 32% Success Rate. The Mustangs have limited opponents' opportunities to score as they rank fourth in the country in Quality Drives allowed.
Rice Owls
In his five prior seasons at Rice, Mike Bloomgren's best season featured five wins in 2022.
Through eight games this season, his Owls have already had four wins, averaging 33.2 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. The offense has a 47% Success Rate and scores 4.93 points per opportunity, which ranks ninth nationally.
The offense has leaned on the passing game for success as quarterback JT Daniels has found his home. He leads the offense with 2,362 passing yards and 19 touchdowns with just six interceptions. He is completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 8.7 yards per attempt.
As a team, Rice has a 51% Passing Success Rate with 4.75 passes over 20 yards per game.
The running game has not been as successful as the passing game, as the Owls' 41% Rush Rate ranks 121st in the country. They average just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per attempt. Two backs have over 50 rush attempts this season, with Dean Connors leading the way with 337 rushing yards.
As a team, Rice has a 44% Rushing Success Rate, which is 67th in the FBS.
The Rice defense has been average, allowing 5.8 yards per play and 27.8 points per game. The Owls allow a 42% Success Rate and 3.52 points per opportunity. They have struggled to generate Havoc on just 12% of plays, which ranks 126th in the country.
SMU vs Rice
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Rice match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. Rice Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 57 |  |
| Havoc | 12 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 99 | |
Rice Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 4 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 45 | 82 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 126 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (24) | 30.5 (126) |
| Rush Rate | 52.1% (69) | 43.5% (121) |
SMU vs Rice
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, approximately 88% of bets are backing the Mustangs in this matchup. Bettors are also jumping on the total with 83% of bets favoring the over as 96% of the money is on the total.
My preferred bet is to back SMU covering a 12-point spread. The SMU defense appears primed to slow down a mediocre Rice offense that won't have many opportunities to score.
The SMU offense will have significant advantages against Rice, and the Mustangs should comfortably win this game by multiple scores.
