Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs Odds
| Boise State Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
It's time to dive into the Boise State vs Fresno State odds and make a pick for Saturday night's Mountain West clash.
We have a massive game in the Mountain West between Boise State and Fresno State on Saturday night.
These teams have faced off for the championship in four of the past 10 seasons, though only one is likely to appear in the championship game this time around.
So, who will it be? Let's dive in.
Boise State Broncos
A major key to this game will be the status of star running back Ashton Jeanty.
Few non-quarterbacks are more important to their team than Jeanty is to Boise State. He has racked up 115.1 yards per game and has scored 11 touchdowns. He's also averaging 5.9 yards per carry and is third in the country in yards after contact.
Unfortunately, Jeanty finished last week’s game in street clothes after suffering a lower-body injury.
Luckily for the Broncos, fifth-year senior George Holani returned to the backfield. He was the starter entering the year and rushed for over 1,100 yards with 10 touchdowns last season.
Offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan has tried to keep quarterback Taylen Green in the pocket this season, but it hasn't worked. The reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year has just six passing touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions.
Boise State has turned to a two-quarterback system, deploying Green for his legs and using Maddux Madsen as a pocket passer.
Madsen is completing 67% of his passes with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He also leads the conference with 9.3 yards per pass attempt.
The defensive numbers for Boise State aren’t great. The Broncos rank 72nd in success rate and are 112th at preventing big plays. But look at some of the offenses they've played — Washington, UCF, Memphis, San Jose State and Colorado State.
Linebacker DJ Schramm is in his sixth year at Boise State and has missed four games with an injury. He returned last week against Wyoming and is a big boost after leading this team in tackles last season.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State has had injury issues of its own this season, mainly to quarterback Mikey Keene. However, he returned last week and threw for four touchdowns in a win over UNLV.
Overall, Keene has tossed 19 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.
The Bulldogs lost more than 4,000 yards of offense from a season ago, but Erik Brooks, Jalen Moss and Jaelen Gill have stepped up at wide receiver to fill the void. Additionally, nine different players have caught a touchdown pass.
Malik Sherrod has taken over as the lead back and Elijah Gilliam has also mixed in. Fresno State doesn't run the ball super efficiently, but the backs do enough to keep the offense balanced.
Fresno State’s defense isn't as dominant as it was last year, but it is still a very good unit, especially against the run. The Bulldogs rank 18th in defensive success rate on rushing plays.
Unfortunately, the Bulldogs haven't been great against the pass, largely due to the loss of star cornerback Cam Lockridge. Fresno State’s best defender is out for the season after suffering an injury in Week 4.
In the past three games, the Bulldogs defense has allowed 440.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.
Boise State vs Fresno State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and Fresno State match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 20 |  |
| Pass Success | 67 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 25 | |
Fresno State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 81 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 106 |
| PFF Coverage | 96 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 40 |
| Middle 8 | 18 | 102 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (82) | 26.7 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 56.8% (35) | 42.6% (124) |
Boise State vs Fresno State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I like Fresno State a lot and am impressed with how well this offense has been able to replace all of the production lost. But I think Boise State is being underrated here.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings agree as they make Boise State a two-point favorite on a neutral field. That makes this game around a pick'em in Fresno.
If you want to bet on this game, it's definitely worth monitoring Jeanty's status because he's so important to his offense. Holani is a good running back, but he doesn’t have the Jeanty's upside.
If Jeanty is playing, I like Boise State catching over a field goal in a game between two teams that are pretty even.
Boise State can win this game. As we've seen all season, if the Broncos don't win, they'll lose by three points or less in heartbreaking fashion.
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