Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The second Saturday of college football bowl season is here.
With seven games on today's docket, we have a stellar day of college football ahead, and it all starts at noon ET with Duke vs. Troy and NIU vs. Arkansas State.
Our staff hand-picked a best bet for each noon game on Saturday's college football bowl slate, so let's dive into the analysis.
And hopefully, when it's all over, we'll have a few extra bucks in our pockets for some last-minute gifts.
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Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
By Brett Pund
In the first game of a busy Saturday in bowl season, I feel the wrong team is favored, likely due to the struggles of MAC teams in bowls in recent years.
However, the Sun Belt hasn't been good this year.
For starters, Arkansas State’s wins this year have mostly come against poor competition. The Red Wolves' victories include games over Stony Brook, Southern Miss, UMass and Louisiana-Monroe.
Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has wins over three bowl teams in Boston College, Ohio and Eastern Michigan. The Huskies also have a slim two-point loss to regular-season MAC champion Toledo on the resume.
Another key advantage in this game is NIU’s rushing attack, which ranks in the top 50 nationally in Rush Success (43rd) and Line Yards (38th). Arkansas State's defense sits outside the top 80 in both categories.
The Red Wolves will also have to stop the ground game without leading tackler Javante Mackey, who's transferring to Memphis.
On the other side of the ball, Northern Illinois has a significant edge in Finishing and Quality Drives. So, I like the Huskies to control the game on the ground and hold Arkansas State to field goals once the Red Wolves get into scoring position.
I'll take the underdogs, who I think could win this game outright.
Pick: Northern Illinois +3 (Play to +1.5)
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Birmingham Bowl: Troy vs. Duke
To opt-out or not opt-out. That's the question plaguing many star players and would-be transfers in this era of college football.
Every non-playoff team suffers from it. Some programs have opt-outs, while others don't. And for the Birmingham Bowl, Troy finds itself in the latter camp, while Duke is squarely in the former.
Duke (7-5) has not only lost its head coach and star quarterback, but it'll also be without its leading rusher, a projected first-round draft pick offensive lineman, its second-leading receiver and six defenders who logged over 350 snaps this season.
And that’s not an exhaustive list.
Troy (11-2) will also be without former head coach Jon Sumrall, but the Trojans will be down just one player who played more than 31 snaps this season, albeit it’s their leading tackler, Jayden McDonald.
And while Duke scuffled along since Riley Leonard’s injury at Notre Dame, losing four of its final six, Troy finished its season on a 10-game winning streak, including a 26-point victory in the Sun Belt Championship.
Troy running back Kimani Vidal finished the year as the nation’s second-leading rusher (1,582 yards) and scored five times against the Mountaineers in the conference championship game. Expect a heavy dose of Vidal against a Duke defensive line down three starters.
Troy’s offense was one of the better units in the Sun Belt this season, and an ACC defense that's a carcass of what it was during the regular season isn’t exactly a significant step up in competition.
The Blue Devils will have to rely on freshman quarterback Grayson Loftis to keep them in the game, and that didn't work down the stretch.
Duke's absences are too much, and the seven points the Trojans are laying are not enough. This is one of the safer picks of bowl season.
Pick: Troy -7 (Play to -7.5)
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