College football Week 11 is here, so it's time to take a look at our favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday, Nov. 9.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, we both took Big Ten 'dogs in Penn State and Washington. The Huskies defended their home turf with a win over USC, but the Nittany Lions fell short in their colossal matchup against Ohio State.
It's on to Week 11.
This week, Collin's heading to the Big 12, where he's taking Kansas to score an upset over an Iowa State team in the thick of the conference race. At the same time, I'm taking North Texas to end Army's undefeated season in Denton.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at just under 5-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 11.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 9-11, +2.13 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 11
Collin Wilson: Kansas +125 vs. Iowa State
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +122 |
It's not the number that's the problem here. It's the direction of these two teams.
Iowa State is struggling on defense. Everybody gets a free score on their first drive against the Cyclones. Meanwhile, Devin Neal and Jalon Daniels are absolutely tearing teams apart in the running game for Kansas.
If you're going to attack this ISU defense, you want to do it on the ground. Kansas has a major advantage there. The Jayhawks come into this game at second in the Big 12 in rushing offense, putting up over 210 yards per game.
They also hold a major advantage on the ground from an advanced metrics perspective.
Kansas ranks 13th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and third in Offensive Line Yards, while Iowa State comes in at 78th and 32nd in those areas on the defensive side of the ball, respectively.
That's a far cry from the Cyclones' rank of eighth in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Give me the Jayhawks to give the Cyclones their second loss in as many weeks.
Stuckey: North Texas ML +165 vs. Army
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -115 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -195 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -105 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +162 |
The Mean Green will benefit greatly from a bye week, which will enable them to nurse some key injuries and prepare for Army's unique offense.
Plus, Army has major quarterback uncertainty with Bryson Daily's status in doubt. He's been nearly flawless this season but missed last week's game against lowly Air Force with a foot infection.
Head coach Jeff Monken labeled Daily's status as questionable to probable, so nobody really knows who will be under center for the Black Knights, who have a bye followed by a matchup with Notre Dame on deck.
If Daily can't go, there's a massive drop-off to backup freshman Dewayne Coleman, who threw for only 48 yards and rushed for only 2.8 yards per carry last week against the Falcons.
You could argue it's close to a touchdown drop-off between Daily and Coleman. And even if Daily does indeed get the start, there's a decent chance he's not 100% healthy as the engine of the offense.
Ultimately, I believe Army comes into this game extremely overvalued (especially with the QB uncertainty) after dominating against the spread against a comical schedule that ranks 145th in difficulty including FCS teams, per Sagarin.
Per my latest power ratings, Army's opponents so far have an average offensive ranking outside the top 110 in the country without even including FCS Lehigh. Just take a look at this list:
- Air Force
- UAB
- Rice
- East Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Tulsa
- Temple
I don't have a single one of those offenses ranked inside the top 90, and four of those seven teams either started a backup quarterback or have since benched their original starter.
Despite that easy schedule, Army still ranks outside the top 80 in Success Rate against the run and pass.
Will the Black Knights be ready for a top-25 North Texas offense? I have my doubts.
I'm buying the Mean Green off of the bye following two straight one-possession losses against Tulane and Memphis in which they outgained both opponents by more than 200 combined yards but just couldn't overcome turnovers and countless key failed fourth-down attempts.
For what it's worth, if Daily gets ruled out, I'd make North Texas a favorite.
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