Albany vs South Dakota State Picks, Odds: How to Bet Friday’s FCS Semifinal

It's time to make an Albany Great Danes vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits pick for Friday's FCS semifinal game.

Jimmy Rogers' debut in Brookings couldn't be going much better. The 35-year-old first-time head coach is 13-0 and has the Jackrabbits primed to return to the FCS National Championship.

After escaping a road test at Southern Illinois in mid-October, South Dakota State has been on a warpath, beating teams by an average margin of 26 points per game.

That blowout parade is made more impressive by the fact that five of its last six opponents have been nationally ranked. This also explains why Albany, currently ranked fifth in the country, has been installed as a three-touchdown underdog.

I don't expect the Great Danes to roll over for the Jackrabbits just because they're the defending national champions, but it's fair to say that this is unchartered territory for the program.

Before this season's 11-3 campaign, Albany had exactly two postseason wins in its 56-year history of playing college football. It made the Division III semifinals in 1977 and beat Central Connecticut State in the first round of the FCS Playoffs in 2019.

But this season has felt different from the start. Albany nearly upset Marshall on the road (21-17) and throttled three ranked FCS teams in Villanova, William & Mary and Richmond en route to last week's quarterfinal matchup with Idaho.

The Kibbie Dome in Moscow, Idaho, is a very difficult place to win, but Albany proved up to the task, winning outright as a 4.5-point underdog.

Those four ranked wins give the Great Danes hope, but their run defense gives them an advantage. Albany's top-rated run defense (78.1) has the opportunity to neutralize a South Dakota State rushing attack that has steamrolled nearly every team they've played.

Can the Great Danes turn this into a rock fight, or will South Dakota State make it nine straight home playoff wins in a runaway?

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As mentioned above, Albany is stout in its front seven. That strength-on-strength battle between the SDSU running game and UA run defense will only tell a part of this story, however.

The Great Danes are good but not great in a few key pass-defense metrics, such as their pass-efficiency defense (29th).

But when we get right down to it, opponents can rack up passing yards through the air (86th) throwing into the UA secondary — if they avoid Aamir Hall. The Richmond transfer made the All-CAA team and has an NFL future at 6-foot-1.

The other primary cornerbacks are going to be attacked in this game because they both stand below 5-foot-9. South Dakota State's Janke twins each stand at 6-foot-3, and big-bodied tight end Zach Heins is 6-foot-7.

Last week, against Villanova, South Dakota State had to pare down its passing game due to gusting winds, but that wasn't a good representation of what it brings to the table with the super-efficient Mark Gronowski tossing the ball around.

I expect more success for SDSU through the air as it finds running into Albany's 4-3 front difficult.

Can Albany keep pace, and avoid any meltdowns if and when it's forced to play from behind? With Reese Poffenbarger coming off the best game of his career, I'm bullish his team can move the ball.

What's interesting is that Albany is nothing special on the ground. But that's fine when facing SDSU. The Jacks have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the country (six) and rank fourth against the run overall. So, abandoning the run was going to happen whether Albany was good at it or not.

The SDSU pass defense is also top-10, but its calling card is never allowing big plays (5.8 YPA). What that creates is pivotal third downs, and luckily for the Great Danes, Poffenbarger is excellent when it comes to moving the chains. Albany ranks 16th in third-down conversion percentage, and the Great Danes can be aggressive on fourth down as they were against Idaho.

They salted the game away in the fourth quarter with a 12-play, 85-yard touchdown drive that required a fourth-down conversion at the Idaho 37-yard line. That kind of aggressiveness will serve them well as big 'dogs in Brookings.

I'm calling my shot — this is going to be the Gronowski game.

South Dakota State has relied on its stout defense and smash-mouth running game to wear opponents down this season. But it's finally facing an elite run defense and an opposing quarterback who has a hot hand.

The weather report is calling for light rain, but the wind shouldn't be a factor at 4-5 MPH. In many cases, a slick field can help opposing offenses that know where they're headed as opposed to defenders reacting.

Gronowski has always been an efficient field general, but this year, he's taken that to the next level. He's improved his completion percentage (67.8%), his yards per attempt average (9.8) and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (25:4). It's why he leads the FCS in passing efficiency by a large margin.

I also like that I have film of SDSU opening up the offense this season already. Against Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Youngstown State, Gronowski averaged 303 passing yards with eight passing touchdowns.

If there's a weakness in an opposing secondary, the Jacks have confidence that Gronowski to take advantage of it.

As mentioned above, there are serious size mismatches in this game between the oversized SDSU receiving corps and the diminutive Albany secondary. We're going to see some deep shots from Gronowski off of play-action, and I think that could really open this game up from the first quarter on.

South Dakota State and the under has been the right play for most of the season.

In five of the Jacks' last seven games, they've won and kept the total points scored below 42. But this could be a quarterback showcase, and both teams could be forced to dial back on the run game when facing elite fronts.

Toss in slippery conditions, and I foresee a four-quarter battle that's played in the 50s.

Pick: Albany+20.5 & Over 45.5 Parlay (+260) 

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