VCU vs. Dayton Odds
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
While almost everyone else in the conference squares off Saturday, Dayton and VCU get the action started on Friday night. The Flyers host VCU looking to remain undefeated in conference as they are 4-0 and also riding a seven-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Rams have won seven of their past eight and are 3-1 in conference, their only loss coming on the road to Duquesne, a team Dayton beat by 12. Can the Flyers remain undefeated at home? Or will Rams be the first to knock them off? Let's dig into to the matchup and make a betting prediction.
VCU Rams
The Rams offense is averaging 71.1 points per game and holding opponents to just 64.9 points per contest. Jamir Watkins has been a leader on both ends of the court, averaging 10.9 points, five rebounds and 1.4 assist per game. He's also posting 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per contest.
One of my biggest concerns when it comes to VCU's matchup with the Flyers is how heavily the Rams rely on free throws. The Rams see 25.2% of their points come at the free throw line as they average 21.3 free throw attempts per game. Dayton, on the other hand, has been one of the best at limiting free throw attempts, giving up just 12.7 per game.
Outside of free throws, VCU has stepped up considerably from three-point range in conference play. On the season, VCU has hit just 34.9% of its shots from deep, but in conference play the Rams are shooting 48.6% from beyond the arc.
Defensively, the Rams have been solid everywhere except at the rim and above the break. Unfortunately, Dayton has not only taken a majority of its shots at the rim, but it's where the Flyers have been at their best, shooting 68.9% in conference play.
Dayton Flyers
The Flyers have been the second best in the A10 when it comes to offensive efficiency and the best in effective field goal percentage.
However, they don't do everything perfect. Dayton is second to last in the conference when it comes to turnover percentage, giving the ball up on 20.5% of its offensive possessions. The good news for the Flyers is VCU has struggled to force turnovers and is 11th in the conference in defensive turnover percentage.
Much like VCU, the Flyers have been great when it comes to getting to the free throw line. Daron Holmes has been able to draw 7.5 fouls per game in conference play and Toumani Camara has been able to draw 4.5.
At the defensive end, Dayton has been a much better team off the defensive glass, coming down with the rebound on 76.5% of opportunities. The only lacking area for Dayton when it comes to defending shots has been against the mid-range — an Area in which VCU not only takes its least amount of shots, but is also shooting just 22.2% over its past five games.
VCU vs. Dayton Betting Pick
I think VCU's stretch of wins over its past eight games has been largely due to a lack in competition. Dayton isn't just unbeaten at home, it's taken down teams like SMU and Duquesne.
I also expect Dayton to continue its advantage around the rim given the Flyers are the number one team in the nation when it comes to average height. Limiting fouls could not be more important against the Rams, who see a fourth of their scoring come at the line.
Dayton's ability to be a top-20 defense, while also limiting fouls, gives them the edge in this one. Back the Flyers as high as an 8-point favorite at home, where they've been 7-4 ATS.
Pick: Dayton -8 or Better |
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