USC vs Arizona Odds, Pick & Prediction for Thursday

USC takes on Arizona on Thursday, March 14, at 3 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Network. Here's USC vs Arizona odds, pick and prediction.

The second round of the Pac-12 tournament usually doesn't have a matchup with this much excitement.

In this instance, though, the USC Trojans saw the most futures line movement of any program, jumping from 40/1 at open to 16/1 at close.

The Trojans will play the Arizona Wildcats — a team they just beat — in hopes of keeping their bid-thief chances alive.

USC trailed at halftime against Washington, which shot a ridiculous 11-of-24 from the field. The Huskies shot over 50% from downtown for most of the game.

Earlier this year, USC wouldn't have won a game like this. Instead, USC remained in the game throughout Washington's unsustainable shooting stretch and controlled things late.

The Trojans nearly returned to SoCal early, but USC backers can thank Boogie Ellis' second-half heroics for the win. Ellis scored 25 points, with five made 3s, most of which were in the second half.

Let's remember that Ellis' next loss in the Pac-12 tourney is his final college game; he doesn't want to end his career on a disappointing note, so there's extra motivation for him.

One of USC's strong points is shooting from deep. It's connected on 35% of its 3s this year and is shooting 43% from 3 during this four-game surge.

Ellis is known for his shooting, while others like Kobe Johnson and DJ Rodman have recently improved their shooting skills. Rodman scored 11+ points in three of the past four games, while Johnson scored 19 points in the win over Arizona.

Moreover, USC benefits from the pressure star freshman Isaiah Collier puts on the rim. Even if Collier isn't driving to score, he's driving to kick to shooters — and you can't put extra bodies on Collier if the shooters hit their looks.

Defenses have to give up one or the other, and Arizona got thrashed by USC's interior scoring attack when they played recently.

Rebounding is a concern for USC, as Arizona won the rebounding battle, 38-24, in that game despite missing far more shots.

On the Arizona side, success is simple: Arizona can win the whole thing when Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell play to their ceiling.

When the two struggle, Arizona is in danger of losing any game.

It's just like losing against Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State twice. One of the two starting guards struggled in each of those losses, so it's a trend at this point.

Love had his worst game of the year on Saturday; he scored two points on the first possession, but didn't score again. Love turned it over five times and missed 10 shots while looking bothered by USC's length.

Andy Enfield switched the defensive assignments from Ellis to Johnson, with the occasional dash of Bronny James shadowing the Pac-12 Player of the Year.

Arizona's path to covering is efficient guard scoring and winning the rebounding battle again. The Wildcats rank 18th in offensive rebounding rate, and top-10 in defensive rebounding rate. Most misses land in Arizona's hands; it just comes down to shotmaking in the big moments.

We're talking about a lava-hot team in USC over the past two weeks.

I know the number of factors in the entire season's body of work, but the Trojans are playing like a tournament team right now.

On a neutral site, with more to play for, give me the Trojans.

Pick: USC +9 (Play to +7)