UConn vs Kansas Odds, Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Two of the top five teams in the country meet on Friday in one of the most anticipated college basketball games of the season.
The defending national champion Connecticut Huskies head to Allen Fieldhouse to take on Kansas. The Jayhawks enter as slight favorites, with a total nearing 150.
Should you back Kansas as it looks to defend home court, or will the Huskies play spoiler and remain undefeated? Here's UConn vs Kansas odds and a pick for Friday.
Connecticut Huskies
The defending national champion Huskies have been nothing but dominant to begin the season. While most games have come against lesser competition, UConn has won by no less than 20 in six of seven. That includes a 20-point beatdown of Indiana at Madison Square Garden.
The only somewhat close call came at MSG, when the Huskies battled with top-25 Texas. UConn took home the victory by 10, but 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan was a non-factor (seven points, two rebounds).
Like we saw last year, Clingan is one of the most difficult players to guard. He has great touch for being so tall and rarely turns the ball over. He’s often a matchup nightmare, is a rim deterrent and is a vacuum on the glass. He's top-10 in offensive rebounding rate and is a huge reason why UConn owns a second-best 65.9% rate on 2s.
In general, Dan Hurley’s squad ranks top-10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. The Huskies are top-10 on both the offensive and defensive glass, which is expected with the Huskies being inside the top 25 in average height.
This team is long and athletic. It forces opponents off the 3-point line and funnels them to the mid-range and at the rim, where Clingan often awaits. If Clingan gets into foul trouble, that’s where the issues could arise.
Against Texas, we saw Samson Johnson step up in the wake of early first-half foul trouble from Clingan. The 6-foot-10 junior finished with 15 points and eight rebounds. Getting consistent production like that might be hard to come by, though. Johnson had just two points and four fouls in 12 minutes against Indiana the game prior.
Offensively, this is a team that loves to shoot the 3 ball. While they've struggled from the perimeter at times — 236th with a 30.9% rate — ShotQuality actually grades the Huskies as 11th in catch-and-shoot 3s and first in off-the-dribble 3s. That means the looks being generated are great, despite the results.
Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer is the leading scorer (16.3 PPG) for UConn, while Tristen Newton is the do-it-all playmaker. Newton returned for another season post-championship and is averaging 15.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game. He's a defensive pest as well.
I’d be remiss not to mention Alex Karaban. He averages 14.6 points and dropped 20 against Texas on an incredibly efficient shooting night. Last year, he was 11th in 3-point rate in Big East play.
Freshman Stephon Castle — 14.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists per game — is not expected to play against Kansas. He suffered a knee injury in the second game of the season and is the 12th-ranked recruit and a five-star in this year’s freshman class.
Kansas Jayhawks
Putting itself right in the center of Feast Week, Kansas faced three top-25 teams and walked away with a pair of wins.
That’s expected from a squad that ranks 17th in Division I in experience. There are two newcomers to this starting rotation, one being freshman Elmarko Jackson and the other being Michigan transfer and star big Hunter Dickinson.
Being able to run the offense through the two-man game of Dajuan Harris Jr. and Dickinson has been imperative for the Jayhawks’ offensive success. Few can actually contain the 7-foot-2 Dickinson, who's averaging 21.7 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.
The blueprint to defeat Kansas was shown by Marquette in a 14-point victory. Not only do the Jayhawks have a lack of depth — which was evident — the Golden Eagles doubled Dickinson and forced him into tough passing situations (five turnovers).
Switching defensively and crisp rotations never led to open shots, leading to the KU offense stalling out. K.J. Adams Jr. was a non-factor and Harris really struggled.
But when Dickinson is able to control possessions, he and Harris (7.4 assists per game) are excellent at setting up opportunities for Adams via cuts. ShotQuality has a 1.59 PPP grade for KU on cuts — eighth-best in the country — a shot type that the Jayhawks rely on for offensive success.
Kevin McCullar Jr. is another athletic body that dominates on cuts. But he’s also able to create his own shot and attack without fear. When he gets going, Kansas has two elite scorers, forcing opposing defenses to scramble.
It’s only been seven games, but McCullar has made significant strides in his senior season. He averages 18.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.
In general, Kansas is the No. 1 team in the country in A/FGM. A lot of that has to do with the need for opponents to double Dickinson.
The offense, in general, ranks top-10 in eFG% and is best on the inside — shocker! — though the Jayhawks are connecting at a near-40% clip from 3, too. ShotQuality has Kansas as No. 1 in PPP on finishes at the rim (1.43) and 25th in the pick-and-roll (1.06).
Dickinson provides another level to this offense that lost Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick from a season ago.
The biggest issue for the Jayhawks has been turnovers; while they beat Tennessee by nine, they did lose the turnover battle, 15-6. Against Marquette and Kentucky, they turned it over no less than 14 times.
And as expected, Dickinson’s presence around the rim has led to Kansas ranking fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 10th in 2-point defense, per KenPom. This is an athletic bunch that rarely fouls and forces opponents into late shot-clock situations.
Opponents shoot 3s on nearly 43% of all field goal attempts, slating Kansas outside the top 300. The Jayhawks' perimeter defense will be imperative against a Connecticut team that shoots 3s at a top-100 high rate.
UConn vs. Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is Connecticut’s first real test this season, and one that will take place in a raucous Allen Fieldhouse. Normally teams can't control the 7-foot-2 Clingan, but I actually think Dickinson holds a clear advantage.
Not only can Dickinson pull Clingan out of the paint — he can hit 3s at a consistent rate — but that’ll in turn allow for Adams and McCullar to attack the rim frequently. If Clingan finds himself in foul trouble, this could quickly turn disastrous for UConn.
A lack of depth is Kansas' biggest concern, and against a physical Huskies squad, the potential for foul trouble is always there. But Bill Self’s squad actually ranks inside the top 20 in FTA/FGA. The Jayhawks are disciplined, especially the big three of Harris, Dickinson and McCullar.
This is going to be a back-and-forth contest between two elite programs. If UConn can heat up from the perimeter, KU can quickly find itself playing catch up, something it doesn't want to be doing against Hurley’s squad.
Given the home court advantage and the fact that I think Dickinson is a game–changer against Clingan, I’m backing Kansas on Friday. Eastern Illinois was an obvious sandwich spot for the Jayhawks, who have their eyes on taking down the defending national champs.
Now is their time.
Pick: Kansas -2 (Play to -3.5)
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