UConn was among six teams that my colleague Ryan Collinsworth singled out in the futures markets before the tournament based on an assessment involving advanced metrics.
The last three national champions had an:
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
- Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.
Only six teams fulfilled those metrics: Houston (+550), Alabama (+750), Purdue (+1200), UCLA (+1400), Texas (+1600) and, lastly, UConn (+2300).
Well, the longest of the bunch is one step away from fulfilling this historic betting trend after yet another commanding victory, this time in the Final Four over Miami.
The Huskies had been the sixth-favorite team to win it all among the public heading into the tournament, according to most sportsbooks. Most bettors got in at 24-1 or 23-1.
UConn Huskies Odds to Win the NCAA Tournament
Preseason: +7500
January 3: +1200
Post-Bracket Reveal: +2400
After Round of 32: +1300
After Sweet 16: +310
After Elite Eight: +115 (via FanDuel)
One bettor in particular got in when the iron was as cool as Alaska.
Amidst a 2-6 midseason slump — in which the Huskies lost to Xavier twice, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence and St. Johns — this bettor in Michigan put down $25,000 on January 24 on the Huskies to win the national championship.
The wager could win $500,000 should UConn beat San Diego State on Monday night, assuming the bettor didn't hedge along the way.
It was remarkable timing for a bet, especially considering the Huskies have gone 14-2 since that midseason stretch.
The Michigan bettor has an opportunity to guarantee himself or herself a massive profit should they prefer to hedge.
San Diego State is +280 on the moneyline at DraftKings as of late Saturday night.
The bettor could place $138,157.89 on the Aztecs to win in order to guarantee themselves a profit of $361,842.11
