Texas A&M vs Memphis Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 146 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 146 -110o / -110u | -275 |
In their third straight game against an SEC foe, the Memphis Tigers (8-3) welcome Texas A&M (6-3) to the FedEx Forum Saturday night.
Penny Hardaway’s squad tipped off the week with a convincing victory at No. 19 Auburn before dropping its mid-week contest at No. 4 Alabama.
Meanwhile, the Aggies were not in action during the week and enter this tilt with wins in four out of their last five.
This should be a great contest between a pair of teams vying for an NCAA tournament bid at the end of the season, and a victory here would be a nice resume builder once we get to March.
Texas A&M Aggies
Through the opening nine games, head coach Buzz Williams has guided his team to some solid victories, including wins over Loyola Chicago and at DePaul. However, the Aggies have struggled against the better opposition on their schedule.
A&M is 0-2 against Quad 1 teams, which were the losses to both Boise State and Colorado on neutral floors. The average margin of defeat in those contests was over 20 points.
The other lone loss also came in a non-conference tournament, as the Aggies dropped the first game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational to Murray State, 88-79.
On the year, Williams’ team ranks in the top 25 in the country in Offensive Adjusted Efficiency (Bart Torvik), but there are two issues that stick out that need to be corrected.
The Aggies have had problems rebounding the basketball on defense, sitting outside the top 200 in defensive rebound percentage (240th). Meanwhile, they are towards the bottom of the NCAA in opponent free-throw rate (355th).
If you give your opponents extra possessions and free throws, it's very hard to have sustained success, especially against top competition.
Memphis Tigers
When the ball is tipped at the Forum, it will be the fifth SEC school that Memphis has faced through the opening 11 games. The Tigers have been a profitable team in those matchups, winning three of the four outright and covering the spread in every contest.
You must wonder if this tough schedule this week will catch up with the squad, but Hardaway will like his chances in front of his home crowd.
Two potential absentees you need to keep an eye on are senior big man Malcolm Dandridge and star guard Kendric Davis, who both exited Tuesday’s loss at Alabama with injuries.
Davis would be hugely missed for the Tigers — he leads the team in points per game (19), assists per game (4.9) and free-throw percentage (90.6%) — but he is expected to play.
As a team, Memphis has a similar issue to the Aggies, as it ranks towards the bottom of the country in defensive rebound percentage (285th). However, this is a Tigers squad that's in the top 30 in both Offensive and Defensive Adjusted Efficiency and top 40 in offensive rebound percentage.
If Hardaway can continue to improve as a coach, his team has a great shot at challenging for a conference title and making another run in the NCAA tournament.
Texas A&M vs. Memphis Betting Pick
When I look at this game, I can only back the home team in this spot. But I do feel there is a better way to back the Tigers than on the spread.
So, my best bet is for Memphis to fly over the team total of 77 points, which is what I expect the number to open at based on the current lines (Caesars). I would play this up to 79.5.
One of the primary reasons for this bet is how bad the Aggies have been defensively away from home this season. In those contests, opponents have gone over this number in three of five games, with none of those teams being as good offensively as Penny’s squad.
A&M allowed 88 points to Murray State — which is 225th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and 103 to Colorado (69th AdjO) at the Myrtle Beach Invitational before allowing 86 to Boise State.
Meanwhile, this is a bet that would have cashed in four of the last five for the Tigers, which includes games at Alabama (14th in AdjD) and Auburn (7th AdjD).
I also don’t hate a play on Memphis on the spread, but I think the pace will be there for us to cash this team total.
