Texas A&M vs. Florida Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 138.5 -105o / -115u | +210 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -104 | 138.5 -105o / -115u | -260 |
Florida welcomes Texas A&M on Wednesday night with both teams looking for their first conference win of the season.
The Gators lost their SEC opener at No. 22 Auburn, but they were able to cover the spread in a three-point loss.
Meanwhile, the Aggies were one of four teams to not begin SEC play last week, closing out their non-conference schedule with victories over Northwestern State and Prairie View A&M. They enter this game with an 8-5 record.
It hasn’t been a great start to the season for either program, which makes this a victory that they both desperately need.
Join me as we dive into this matchup to find the best betting value.
Texas A&M Aggies
After a great postseason run last season, the momentum has not carried over into this campaign for head coach Buzz Williams and his program.
A&M won three games in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship, and the Aggies followed that up by falling just one game short of an NIT title.
During the non-conference slate this year, the two main issues for Williams’ squad was its 3-point defense (285th) and fouling on defense (328th in opponent FT rate), according to Bart Torvik.
However, the Aggies do rank inside the top 60 in 2-point defense (52nd), AdjO (51st) and opponent turnover percentage (35th). Still, they haven’t been able to pick up quality wins before SEC play.
Their five losses also don’t look good when you factor in that A&M’s strength of schedule ranks outside the top 230 on KenPom.
Florida Gators
The Gators also share a struggling non-conference record, owning a 7-6 mark.
The big difference between the Gators and Aggies is the fact that coach Todd Golden and his new squad have played a tough schedule that ranks in the top 50 by KenPom.
On the season, Golden’s team has played six Quad 1 opponents, failing to win any of those matchups. To compare, Texas A&M only has one contest against similar opposition.
Even against the tough teams, Florida has put together some solid defensive metrics, ranking inside the top 30 in AdjD (26th) and 2-point defense (25th), and 69th in EFG%.
Offensively, everything runs through star center Colin Castleton, who averages 15 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. He's also added over 30 assists and blocks in his senior campaign.
Texas A&M vs. Florida Betting Pick
When I compare the two teams in my power ratings, Florida entering the game as a seven-point favorite at home is right where I would set the number. I also don’t see any value on a total, either.
However, there are numbers to back up a slow start for the visitors.
So, my best bet is to back the Gators in the first half at a -3.5 spread or better.
Away from home this season, the Aggies have an average first-half margin of -4, and they have been trailing after the opening period in four of six games on the road or on neutral courts.
If you narrow it down to matchups against teams inside the top 100 in KenPom, A&M has been losing at the break in all three contests by an average of 13 points a game.
Meanwhile, this is a Florida squad that has been leading at halftime in seven of 12 games this year, including three straight against Ohio, Oklahoma and No. 22 Auburn.
The Gators also rank inside the top 65 in average first-half margin at +4.3, which improves to +7.2 at home.
If your book offers team totals in the first half, you can also look there to back the home team at anything below 36, but I’ll keep it simple with Florida having a lead of multiple scores going into the break.
