Tennessee vs South Carolina Odds, Prediction: Vols Looking for Revenge

A top-25 SEC rematch is in order Wednesday night, as South Carolina looks to sweep the season series against Tennessee in Columbia.

The Vols were shocked on their home floor earlier this season when the Gamecocks won outright as double-digit underdogs.

If South Carolina takes down Tennessee, it'll own the tiebreak for seeding purposes in the SEC Tournament. But a win for the Vols would secure the top seed and a guaranteed share of the regular-season title.

Can Tennessee exact revenge against South Carolina on the road, or will the Gamecocks continue to stun the competition and defy analytics en route to the top of the SEC standings?

There are few certainties in life. Tennessee's domination of the SEC under Rick Barnes has become one of them.

The Vols enter on a six-game win streak with huge wins over both Auburn and on the road against Alabama. They've put themselves in sole possession of first place in the conference, and a revenge opportunity on Wednesday could lock up the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament.

Tennessee’s defense is its bread and butter.

This is the No. 3 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency with a dominant 2-point defense anchored by 6-foot-11 Jonas Aidoo. He's an efficient rebounder and ranks third in conference play in block rate.

ShotQuality ranks UT in the top five in the following defensive categories: catch-and-shoot 3s, off-the-dribble 3s, finishes at the rim, the pick-and-roll and half-court defense (No. 1). Just under 16% of all 3s are also left unguarded, a testament to the vice grip Tennessee has on its opponents.

The issue for Barnes’ teams of the past has been a lack of offensive support. It left Tennessee vulnerable often and contributed toward countless early-tournament losses.

Well, that’s not the case anymore with Dalton Knecht.

The Northern Colorado transfer has become one of the best pure scorers in all of college basketball. There’s no slowing him down. Against top SEC defenses like Auburn and South Carolina, Knecht scored 30-plus points both times.

Knecht doesn’t turn the ball over, and draws nearly seven fouls per 40 minutes while shooting 42.5% from 3 and taking 35% of shots on the floor in SEC play. He's the driving force of this offense.

The development of Aidoo offensively has also been a huge boost. The Vols are no longer a one-dimensional roster, and Zakai Zeigler has been the perfect veteran presence to set up his teammates. He ranks No. 1 in assist rate in SEC play.

This is an experienced Tennessee squad that has played under Barnes for a long time without Knecht. This is not your ordinary Vols team of years past. They’re better.

The job Lamont Paris has done in his first year at South Carolina will surely earn him Coach of the Year honors.

This was a team picked to finish at the bottom of the conference that now has a shot at taking hold of the No. 1 seed with a season sweep of Tennessee on Wednesday (if Alabama loses to Florida on Tuesday night).

Perhaps the most interesting part of South Carolina’s game has been its ability to win and win close. This is a team that ranks outside the top 40 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, yet has stuck around the elite of the SEC.

Collin Murray-Boyles has become an integral part of the Gamecocks, most notably for his defensive pressure and rebounding ability. He was eased into action but has become a staple on the glass in recent games, with a double-digit output against both Texas A&M and Florida.

South Carolina is very trigger-happy from 3, and despite ranking around the mid-100s in success rate, can find plenty of opportunities through drives and kicks.

Nearly a third of all shot attempts come via catch-and-shoot 3s, with Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack being the primary shooters. Ta’Lon Cooper is also shooting 49.2% from 3 in conference play, a significant leap from years past.

Paris prefers a slow and methodical offense. The Gamecocks rank 354th in adjusted tempo and don’t find themselves committing bad turnovers.

This is a strong offensive rebounding team that can sustain longer possessions and keep second-chance opportunities flowing — a big difference-maker in being able to fend off A&M’s comeback a week ago.

Johnson has gone from a letdown Ohio State prospect to the leader of this South Carolina team and has made countless big shot after big shot.

Defensively, this is a team that doesn't force turnovers. Instead, South Carolina plays straight up and looks to force tough shots and crash the defensive glass hard. In conference play, the Gamecocks rank first in free-throw rate, second in defensive rebounding and third in 2-point defense.

A lot of that has to do with the presence of Murray-Boyles as well as added length from Mack and Josh Gray (in limited fashion).

This is an average perimeter defense, though South Carolina looks to funnel opponents inside to the midrange (23% of shots). The Gamecocks also rank top-30 when it comes to frequency of 3s.

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Tennessee was stunned on its home floor against South Carolina nearly a month ago. You can bet the Vols are ready to respond in a big way in Columbia.

I love betting into motivation spots, and this is certainly one of them. Plus, we get one of the best teams in the country with revenge on its mind.

If you go back to Feb. 14, the start of Tennessee's six-game win streak, Bart Torvik ranks the Vols as the No. 4 team in the country.

Diving deeper into that South Carolina win, it was Tennessee's offense that went AWOL. Aside from Knecht's 31 points, the rest of Tennessee shot 10-of-34 (29%) from the field, including 15% from 3. That shouldn't happen this time around, especially given the way UT is trending.

In that same span, South Carolina ranks 49th with both its offense and defense sitting outside the top 55. This is a good team that has consistently surpassed expectations, but at the end of the day, I side with the Vols' physicality and talent to outlast the Gamecocks on the road.

South Carolina has been able to escape danger in its last few games, but I'm expecting a dominant performance here from Tennessee to secure the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament.

Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (Play to -7)