College Basketball Odds, Pick for Seton Hall vs Creighton

Get primed for an old-school Big East battle between Seton Hall and Creighton, who gave us a three-overtime thriller earlier this season. The Pirates hosted that game in Newark and will now head to Omaha to face the Bluejays.

Seton Hall is far from an NCAA Tournament lock as it sits 56th in KenPom and 61st in the NCAA Net rankings. The Pirates have won noteworthy games over UConn and Marquette in conference play, but lost to Creighton. It is interesting to note that the Pirates lost by double-digits when meeting the Golden Eagles and Huskies on the road after beating them at home. Will this game follow suit?

Kadary Richmond is one of the best point guards in college hoops, averaging 16.3 points, seven rebounds and five assists per game. He posted a triple double in 51 minutes against Creighton the first time, but shot 8-for-32 from the field. Richmond loves backing down opponents in the post and using his size to initiate plays down low. He's a non-shooter, but has gradually improved at the free-throw line and is connecting on 77% of his foul shots.

Seton Hall really can't shoot 3s. The team only shoots triples around 30% of the time and connects on just 31.6% of its shots from 3. The only reliable shooter is Al-Amir Dawes, as he's the only player shooting above 35% from downtown.

The Pirates roster took time to understand how coach Shaheen Holloway wants to play. The defensive-mined coach has his team ranking as the 41st-best defense in the sport and the third-best defense in Big East play. Holloway got the job at his alma mater after leading Saint Peter's to a pair of NCAA Tournament wins that were fueled by an elite defense. Seton Hall has figured out how to play the style Holloway wants, and it's translating to wins.

Last week's set of games gave us the GREAT version of the Creighton Bluejays, followed by the opposite end of the spectrum a few days later. Creighton brought then-No. 1 ranked UConn to the woodshed, then struggled to crack Rick Pitino's defense in a loss against St John's on Sunday.

Why the variance?

Shooting decides whether Creighton is winning games or losing games. The Bluejays went a jaw-dropping 14-for-28 from deep against UConn and 6-for-26 from deep against the Johnnies. That's the difference between Creighton losing in the Round of 32 or making a Final Four run. Which version will we see on Wednesday?

Well, in this particular matchup, the one way to beat Seton Hall's defense is to shoot the 3. Seton Hall's opponents shoot 3s on 42% of field goal attempts since they're so tough to drive against. That's beneficial to Creighton's style of play as it shoots 3s on 47% of its field goal attempts.

We know Baylor Scheierman (18.2 points per game) and Trey Alexander (16.5 points per game) will show up most nights, but Steven Ashworth is the one player who's presence has been inconsistent. He scored 20 points on 5-for-14 shooting from 3 against UConn and scored only nine points against St John's. The single-digit scoring day from Ashworth snapped an 11-game streak in which Ashworth had scored 10 or more points. If Ashworth gets back on track against Seton Hall, it'll be great news for Creighton.

Seton Hall's offense isn't good enough to keep pace with Creighton if the Bluejays are shooting well from deep and I expect a strong shooting output from Creighton.

I would've made the line around -10, so Creighton opening at -8.5 is pretty terrific value. I'm willing to play the Bluejays to -9.5 and am expecting a solid performance.

Pick: Creighton -8.5 (Play to -9.5)