Purdue vs. Northwestern Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 135.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 135.5 -105o / -115u | +180 |
Perhaps the biggest game of the Big Ten slate in the coming weeks takes place at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, Illinois, on Friday. This is a sell-out for Northwestern fans, who will look to root on the team to back-to-back NCAA tournament berths for the first time in program history.
Zach Edey is about as dominant as a player can be at the college level. He tore apart the Marquette frontcourt, and Marquette very well could see itself in the Final Four come tourney time.
However, Northwestern plays at a snail’s pace and has a well-rounded team. If the Wildcats can limit fouls and 3s, that will impact the total.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue excels beyond the arc. It's shooting 42.8% from outside, but it ranks 208th in the NCAA in 3-point attempt rate. Northwestern allows a 43.3% 3-point attempt rate and a 38.5% 3-point percentage.
This is one area of concern for under-backers, but Purdue will likely still focus on getting the ball to Edey down low.
As much as Purdue is strong from the outside, it ranks only 53rd in Open 3 Rate, so this could play into NU’s favor.
Purdue is also a great rebounding team. However, the Boilers rank 103rd in offensive rebounding and 26th in defensive rebounding. NU ranks 116th and 210th, respectively.
As much as Edey is a threat on the offensive glass, the Boilermakers don't have many others who will crash the glass offensively. Also, Northwestern's Matthew Nicholson and Brooks Barnhizer can haul in defensive boards to help cut into the rebounding margin.
Northwestern, in particular, defends the post-up well. Per Shot Quality, the Wildcats rank sixth in the NCAA in points per possession off of post-ups. Purdue ranks 17th in the nation in defaulting to a post-up on offense.
Look for Nicholson and company to close out on Edey and force someone else on the Boilermakers to make a shot.
Zach Edey is Dominant in college
Is he an NBA player?
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) November 23, 2023
Northwestern Wildcats
The key in this one will be the Cats' ability to control the pace. They rank 318th at 18.9 seconds per possession offensively and 353rd at 19 seconds per possession defensively.
Overall, this leads to one of the slowest Adjusted Tempos in basketball (357th).
Purdue usually pushes the pace, but the Boilermakers rank 187th at 17.2 seconds per possession on offense and 37th at 16.1 seconds per possession on defense.
Given how slowly NU plays, this game will lean towards Northwestern’s style of play: slow.
Northwestern also is not the best on the offensive end. The Wildcats do rank 48th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom), but this is mainly because they only turn the ball over 14% of the time.
Otherwise, the Cats are shooting 32% from deep and 53.6% from inside, while barely getting to the strike (293rd in free throw attempt rate).
Purdue rarely fouls — ranking third in the nation defensively — so Northwestern shouldn't see too many trips to the line.
That said, the Wildcats do rank 71st in Open 3 Rate, while Purdue allows a 3-point attempt rate of 43% and an Open 3 Rate that ranks 301st.
Ty Berry and Boo Buie are the deep threats for Northwestern at over 38%, so expect these two to loom large on the final result of this game.
Purdue vs. Northwestern
Betting Pick & Prediction
Northwestern’s offense is not good enough to contend with Purdue’s. Northwestern doesn't turn the ball over, so this should slow the pace down in this game.
Since Purdue likes getting the ball to Edey on the inside (who wouldn’t?), the Wildcats should make some crucial stops and force Purdue to eat more clock offensively.
With all that being the case, the under should be taken to 136.
Pick: Under 138 (Play to 136)
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