Ohio State vs Iowa Odds & Pick for Thursday

The upcoming Big Ten tournament clash between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes is shaping up to be a high-powered encounter packed with two elite offenses.

Set against the backdrop of a neutral site in Minneapolis, this game not only promises high stakes but also presents a fascinating puzzle to dissect, thanks to the distinct statistical profiles and recent performances of both teams.

The Buckeyes have carved out a solid season, with their offense ranking 40th in Adjusted Efficiency. This is in part due to their commendable free-throw percentage, placing them 25th nationally, a statistic that could prove pivotal in the closing stages of a tight game.

However, their middle-of-the-pack ranking in effective field goal percentage (154th) suggests they sometimes struggle to maximize their shooting opportunities.

On the defensive end, Ohio State boasts a respectable 69th-place in Adjusted Efficiency, underpinned by its ability to limit opponents' effective shooting (62nd in eFG%).

Yet, the Buckeyes' relatively low ranking in forcing turnovers (260th) could limit their ability to disrupt Iowa's offensive flow.

Iowa’s offense is among the most efficient in the nation, ranking 15th in Adjusted Efficiency. Its low turnover rate (4th) indicates a disciplined approach to ball handling, allowing it to maximize its possessions.

The Hawkeyes' shooting accuracy is also noteworthy, with a solid ranking in both effective field goal percentage (77th) and free-throw percentage (14th).

Defensively, however, Iowa faces challenges.

Its 147th-ranked defense in Adjusted Efficiency and particularly poor showing in defensive rebounding (253rd) and effective field goal percentage (254th) could be exploitable weaknesses that Ohio State might leverage.

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In evaluating both teams' strengths and weaknesses, the potential for a high-scoring affair is evident, especially given Iowa's potent offense and defensive vulnerabilities.

However, Ohio State's more balanced approach and efficiency at the free-throw line present a compelling case for its ability to control the game's tempo and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Considering the neutral site and the statistical overview, my recommendation leans toward betting Ohio State to cover the -2 spread.

The Buckeyes' defensive solidity against Iowa's less stringent defense — combined with their ability to convert free throws — positions them favorably in what promises to be a closely contested matchup.

The Buckeyes' defensive competence and strategic gameplay could slightly temper Iowa’s scoring frenzy.

Ohio State’s slow and methodical approach (305th in pace) will lead to a strategic and controlled play from the Buckeyes, while they aim to exploit Iowa's defensive lapses and manage the game pace to their advantage.

Take Ohio State to cover the two-point spread and expect a strong performance from the Buckeyes.

Pick: Ohio State -2 (Play to -3) or OSU ML -115