Northwestern vs Illinois Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
The Illinois Fighting Illini will host the Northwestern Wildcats in an inter-state conference showdown in Champaign. Both teams look the part of clear NCAA tournament squads, but the two might be trending in opposite directions right now.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats rank 351st in tempo, according to KenPom. They’ve only scored 80+ points three times the entire season — one came in the overtime victory over No. 1 Purdue and the other two came against Northern Illinois and Detroit Mercy.
Playing fast isn't in the Wildcats' DNA, but in games when scoring a bunch of points is needed, Northwestern can join the party.
Chris Collins is totally fine if his team scores 70 points, assuming the Wildcats limit turnovers and stay consistent defensively.
Star guard Boo Buie is one of America's top guards. He proved himself last season when Northwestern won an NCAA tournament game, and he's doing it more efficiently this year. The super-senior guard is averaging 17.9 points, 4.9 dimes and 4.4 rebounds a night in 12 games.
It'll be interesting to see how Buie navigates offensively with the 6-foot-6 Ty Rodgers defending him. I imagine Buie will use his burst to get into the lane and either try scoring inside or kicking out to shooters, Ty Berry and Ryan Langborg.
Langborg is a huge key for Northwestern's offense. He's shooting 42% from deep this season, including 29-of-43 from deep in the past five games. The Princeton transfer could use another lava-hot shooting performance in Champaign.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. was suspended from the program following an arrest for an alleged rape. Illinois has to operate without an All-American candidate for an unspecified period of time.
Illinois is totally different without a shot-creating maven like Shannon. What we thought about Illinois previously will change, and nobody knows what's coming.
I still expect Illinois’ defense to remain solid, as the team features plenty of length and athleticism. Coleman Hawkins and Rodgers both play integral roles as multi-positional defenders, so Illinois’ new identity might come on defense.
I mean, is Illinois really the 18th-best offense in America without Shannon? Nope.
It’ll need a constant effort from Marcus Domask, who scored 11 points and tossed 11 assists in the 33-point drubbing of Fairleigh Dickinson last week. One area Domask must improve on is shooting from deep, as he's connected on 11-of-57 (19%) 3s so far.
That won’t get the job done, especially as the No. 1 scoring option on a Big Ten team.
The glass is a favorable area for the guys from Champaign, as they rank top-15 in offensive rebounding percentage and top-50 in defensive rebounding percentage. Illinois doesn’t have someone like Kofi Cockburn — who seemingly captured every rebound — but six players average four or more rebounds.
It’s a team effort on the glass, and the effort matters even more without Shannon.
Quincy Guerrier was an offensive non-factor to begin the season, but he’s scored 14+ points in the past four games. The versatile Guerrier is 11-of-21 from deep in the four-game span, so watch out for his perimeter shooting in this one.
The two teams boast contrasting styles — Illinois will push the pace, while Northwestern wants to deliberately sneak out a victory.
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm a believer in both teams' defensive consistency, and each has offensive issues. Illinois lacks a No. 1 option now, and Northwestern's post scoring is less than ideal.
I expect the Wildcats' pace to impact the total. Also, Illinois will likely slow the game down a bit more without Shannon.
Pick: Under 143.5
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