They call it March Madness for a reason, but we’ve never seen madness like this before. Underdogs are winning at an incredibly high rate, and as a result, a public that’s largely backed them against the spread is up big.
The public’s struggled mightily over the years, but it’s the exact opposite this season. Through the First Four & Round 64, the public is 25-10 against the spread. According to our Bet Labs, a $100 bettor would be up $1,277 thus far. That’s the best start for the public dating back to 2005.
In fact, it’s not even close. The public currently has a 36.5% return on investment thus far compared to -7.3% in 2023, -7.1% in 2022 and -5.8% in 2021.
The last time the public was profitable through this point in the NCAA tournament was when they went 19-17 in 2019 (2.4% ROI). A $100 bettor back then would have been up $87, which is a far cry from the $1,277 they’d be up this year.
Additionally, the games that the public are more confident in are hitting at a higher rate than usual. While they are 25-10 in games in which at least 51% are on that side, they’re 14-8 in games in which 60% are backing a team. That’s a 21.5% ROI with a $100 bettor being up $472, which is the best rate since 2007 when the public went 12-7-1.
A major reason for the public’s success is that they’ve backed underdogs, who are thriving at a historic rate thus far. Fourteen have won outright, which is the most upset wins entering the Round of 32 in the entire First Four era (since 2011).
Meanwhile, 12 ‘dogs won outright in the Round of 64, which is the most since 2001 and tied for the second-most dating back to 1985. As a result, the public has a higher ROI in games they’re catching points. Underdogs have gone 10-3 ATS for a 47.1% ROI while favorites have gone 15-7 for 30.3%.
However, while underdogs are crushing it, they’ve struggled covering 10-plus points. Double-digits favorites are actually 11-3 ATS, meaning underdogs have covered a thinner spread but mostly get blown out by heavy favorites.
Add it up and we have a wildly unique situation in which underdogs are winning straight up at a historic clip while double-digit favorites are also covering at an all-time rate.
So what does it all mean for Round 2?
The public is all over a few underdogs in Saturday's Round of 32 matchups. As of Saturday morning, Oregon is getting 72% of moneyline bets against Creighton. The line there has moved from +260 at open to +180 as of this writing. Duquesne is getting 64% of moneyline tickets with odds as long at +440 against Illinois. Texas rounds out the teams getting more than half of moneyline betting tickets with 56% of bets hitting the Longhorns as +225 'dogs against Tennessee.
