We're officially down to the final game of the college basketball season.
And with that in mind, our experts have their top predictions for Monday's matchup between UConn and Michigan.
Dive in below for National Championship picks, including expert best bets for Monday, April 6.
National Championship Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UConn vs. Michigan Spread Pick
By Sean Paul
I firmly believe that nobody can keep a game to single digits against Michigan when it shoots 35% or more from deep. The Wolverines shot 47% from 3 against Saint Louis, 48% against Alabama, 37% against Tennessee and 44% against Arizona. Each of the games resulted in a 20+ point win for the Wolverines.
For the season, Michigan is shooting 37% from 3. It was around 35% before the NCAA Tournament, but even shooting 35% from 3 is ridiculous for a team that dominates every other facet of the game.
Dusty May is all about winning the rim battle. Michigan is one of the top interior defenses in the country, holding teams to a 44% shooting percentage on 2-pointers (second-best). The Wolverines also shoot a terrific 60.9% on from inside the arc (fourth).
Big man Aday Mara is the catalyst for the rim success on both ends. He's a shot-swatter that also affects way more than the 2.7 shots he blocks per game. He thrives at setting screens and plays the pick-and-roll game with Elliot Cadeau perfectly. That pair thinks telepathically, and everything is in sync and on time.
Keep an eye on Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg's status. He suffered an MCL sprain in the first half against Arizona and returned in the second half with a noticeable limp. He looked hurt, but he managed to hit two 3s. He'll be less than 100%, but just how far below 100% will he be?
UConn just peppered Illinois with pindown screens to open up shooters. The Fighting Illini had no answers, but Michigan can use its size and physicality to blow the screens up. The Huskies went 12-for-33 from 3 against Illinois, and that includes Alex Karaban's 1-for-7 from deep.
Thankfully for them, Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins combined for seven 3s to make up for Karaban struggling.
The Huskies will have to shoot well. They'll also need another brilliant performance from Tarris Reed Jr, and that's the part I find unlikely. Reed Jr scored 17+ points in four of UConn's NCAA Tournament games. He also played 29+ minutes in each game, signaling a lack of foul trouble.
That'll change here. Having to defend Mara, who stands four inches taller than Reed, could be a problem. If Reed gets in foul trouble and a very green Eric Reibe has to play, the floodgates will open.
I certainly have to credit Dan Hurley for coaching an elite defense. The Huskies are eighth in defensive efficiency, while holding opponents to 45% shooting from inside the arc (12th) and 30.5% from 3 (20th).
The Huskies want to play slow and have benefited from playing very slow teams to this point. UCLA, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois are close to 300th in adjusted tempo, but Michigan is 22nd. This will be a very different test for the Huskies, and I'm not sure it's one they're built to win.
Pick: Michigan -6.5
UConn vs. Michigan Spread Pick
By Ryan Minion
While some were calling Michigan versus Arizona the game of the decade, I was far from surprised at the result. The Wolverines had clear advantages both inside the paint and on the perimeter, and they made an absolute statement in the process.
I fully expect Dusty May’s bunch to do the same against UConn on Monday.
While the Huskies were rather impressive against Illinois, I couldn't imagine a worse matchup for the Huskies than the Wolverines.
UConn has relied on the stellar play of Tarris Reed Jr. on the offensive end of the floor all tournament long. The senior absolutely dominated an impressive Duke frontcourt followed by Illinois, which also boasted impressive size.
That said, the Wolverines' frontcourt is on another level, with Aday Mara’s presence as a rim protector being a very difficult challenge for any opponent.
The 7-foot-3 Spaniard will undoubtedly make it tough for Reed to get open looks near the basket. Alongside Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. has also been elite at both ends of the floor.
While the Huskies' backcourt has some great shooters, they lack the athleticism required to run with a team of Michigan’s caliber. The Wolverines have a suffocating perimeter defense that will make it very tough for Alex Karaban and Braylon Mullins to find an offensive rhythm.
Michigan has advantages everywhere in this matchup, and I feel more than confident playing it to cover its -6.5 number with -120 juice.
Pick: Michigan -6.5
UConn vs. Michigan Total Pick
UConn landed under the total in the Final Four, while Michigan went over.
Both teams boast better "under" clips heading into the national title, but PRO's premium resources scream "over" in Monday's matchup.
Projections run odds for every single NCAA Tournament game. The Action PRO line is right on par with the market spread (Michigan -6.5), but the total is soft.
While most shops are hanging 144.5 as the consensus over/under, projections predict 148 points being scored.
Monday's UConn vs. Michigan prediction is also backed by sharp bets on the over.
PRO Report tracked four separate moves on the over, adding more support to a high-scoring game.
PRO data doesn't point to any value on the side, but there's certainly an edge predicting the Huskies and Wolverines to finish over 144.5 points.
Pick: Over 144
Check out Alex's full PRO article for this matchup:
UConn vs. Michigan First Half Total
In college football, it’s easy to spot playcallers who dominate the “scripted” portions of games. There’s a rhyme and reason to each play. Their teams seem to execute at a higher level in the first quarter, and that early success sets up counterpunches later in the game.
In a fluid game like basketball, this can be harder to spot, but I can assure you that some teams are better prepared for the opening five minutes than others.
This, of course, extends to defensive preparation as well, and Michigan and UConn are two of the most buttoned-up teams in that regard.
Michigan overwhelmed Tennessee and Arizona defensively in the first half of its past two games. The Wolverines held the Vols to just 26 points at the break. Arizona didn’t fare much better in the Final Four, scoring 32 points on 12-for-32 shooting in the first 20 minutes of action.
A common theme across the two games was Michigan’s ability to take away anything inside of 17 feet. In the first half of its matchup with Michigan, Arizona shot 35% (7-of-20) within that range, and Tennessee found the sledding even more difficult, shooting a paltry 28.6% (6-of-21).
This was a testament to Michigan’s size and preparation.
UConn has been a dominant first-half defense all season long, ranking 17th in scoring average (31 first-half PPG allowed). Per Evan Miya, Tarris Reed Jr. is the ninth-rated player on the defensive end in the entire sport.
And while a full-game wager on the under would necessitate Reed avoiding foul trouble, a first-half play doesn’t run the same whistle-risk. The same goes for Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg, who rank first and fourth on Miya's defensive leaderboard.
And it bears mentioning that Lendeborg’s health is paramount in this game. He’s the third-most indispensable player in college basketball (Miya). And to put his importance into perspective, Michigan’s peak lineup efficiency drops by nearly 23% when Lendeborg is off the floor.
If his MCL and ankle sprains limit him, Michigan’s offense could be put into a box by Dan Hurley and his staff.
Given the defensive masterclasses I just witnessed in the Final Four, the reputation of both coaching staffs, and the potential absence of Lendeborg, this under is my top play on my card.
Pick: 1H Under 68.5
UConn vs. Michigan Player Prop
By Greg Waddell
With a healthy Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan should roll at the pregame number. However, there are too many injury concerns across the board here.
With Lendeborg likely hobbled and L.J. Cason out for the season, Trey McKenney will be tasked with stepping up yet again.
McKenney has hit this mark in 14 of his last 20 games going back to before Cason's injury.
With depth at a premium, his shot volume should be at its absolute peak value.
Pick: Trey McKenney 2+ 3-Pointers Made
UConn vs. Michigan Player Prop
By Alex Hinton
Yaxel Lendeborg entered the Final Four having scored 23 points in three consecutive NCAA Tournament games. That streak came to an end on Saturday due to the injury.
However, he still scored 11 points in 14 minutes, including six points on two 3s at the start of the second half. His form looked good and he appears to be good to go on Monday night.
While Michigan has proven it doesn't need its star to dominate, Lendeborg's injury may be providing a discount to his scoring line. He's averaged 19 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and is now averaging 15.1 points per game for the season.
He's scored 14 points in 24 of 39 (62%) games this season and in three of five NCAA Tournament games.
Additionally, with Lendeborg's versatile game at 6-foot-9, UConn doesn't have a great matchup for him. If he's primarily a jump shooter, he can still score 14 points because of the way Michigan moves the ball and sets him up for open looks.
Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 13.5 Points
Click here to find more of Alex Hinton's player props for the national title game:
UConn vs. Michigan Team Total
By Joshua Nunn
Michigan has scored 90 or more points in every game in this NCAA Tournament and has only failed to exceed this point total eight times in 39 games this season.
The Wolverines regularly seek to run out in transition off of misses, generating paint touches and easy layups or trips to the foul line. UConn fouls a ton defensively, ranking 307th in free-throw rate allowed.
I expect Michigan to procure paint touches here with good looks inside, and Michigan is going to get to the stripe often in this game.
UConn played several up-tempo teams this season, including BYU, Providence and St. John's, who all gave the Huskies issues with their pace. I would expect the defense to have to collapse in on Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr., and that's where the Wolverines can put the pressure on.
Michigan is a dangerous 3-point shooting team that'sburied 10 or more triples in every game during this NCAA Tournament run. Shooters are stroking it with confidence, and I expect that to continue. I think the inside-outside game will continue to flourish in this one, and Michigan will be efficient offensively.
KenPom has this game being played at 68 possessions, and even that might be a hair low.
If UConn is trailing like everybody has been against Michigan during this tournament, the Huskies are going to have to elevate the urgency and pace, which should lead to a higher-than-expected possession count and more “shots on goal” for the Wolverines.
I think Michigan will win this game, and I lean over for the full game. I really like the Michigan team total over at the current price, though.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Over 75.5 (Play to 78.5)
