National Championship Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:20 p.m. | |
| 9:20 p.m. | |
| 9:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
When the college basketball season began in early November, UConn was riding high after a national title and Purdue was down in the dumps following a loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in the previous NCAA Tournament.
But all season long these two proved to be a cut above the rest.
Now the two best teams meet on the biggest stage in college basketball, and we have everything covered from a betting angle. So, here's National Championship best bets and our staff's top picks for UConn vs. Purdue on Monday, April 8.
Purdue vs. UConn
Purdue +7
I’ll go against the UConn juggernaut one more time.
These have been the two most dominant teams in the country all season, and we deserve an epic title game after a somewhat underwhelming NCAA Tournament as a whole.
Purdue is simply too good of a basketball team for me not to take a swing catching seven points.
The Boilermakers will be the first team the Huskies have seen all tournament that can match their size and challenge them on the boards.
Obviously, that’s largely due to the presence of National Player of the Year Zach Edey, who will be a totally different animal than anyone else Donovan Clingan has matched up against.
I’ll also bet on the Boilers’ role players, who I believe are ready for the stage and will knock down some big shots from the outside.
Whether it be Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Lance Jones or Mason Gillis, all are capable of catching fire from distance, which will help Purdue go blow-for-blow with Connecticut.
The Boilermakers can score on UConn similarly to how Alabama did, but they also have the team defense to make it much more difficult on the Huskies than the Crimson Tide did.
I think we get a classic on Monday, and while Purdue is rightfully the underdog, this is just too many points.
Pick: Purdue +7 (Play to +6)
Under 145.5
After an exciting tournament and plenty of intriguing storylines, the dust has settled. The two best statistical teams in the nation, per KenPom, have fought their way to the championship game.
While both teams possess elite offenses, the defenses are just as capable. That’s where I’m finding the value in this game. While Connecticut and Purdue have the two most efficient offenses in the nation, the way both teams run their stuff leads to a slower style of play.
Neither team is particularly upbeat in its tempo. In fact, UConn is one of the slowest teams in the nation and Purdue is in the bottom 50%.
This total has been set for a perfect offensive performance for each team, and I think that’s where the value is tucked away here.
In addition to the normal downside variance that appears in college basketball — particularly from beyond the arc — both of these defenses have huge inherent strengths that should keep the under firmly in play.
Playing into the variance theme, UConn has the second-ranked 2-point defense in the nation. This should help force Purdue into more 3-point attempts, effectively dragging down its potential effective field goal rate.
Purdue has been excellent on the glass all season, thanks in large part to Edey. The Boilermakers rank 13th in defensive rebounding, grabbing 76.1% of boards.
This will be an issue for a UConn team that has thrived on second chances this season, which should subsequently limit scoring for the Huskies.
My model projects the total for this game at 140 points. I think the current market is underpricing both defenses, providing an attractive entry point for under bettors. I would bet the under to 143.5.
Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 143.5)
Purdue TT Under 70.5 Points
By D.J. James
The Purdue Boilermakers might finally meet their match on Monday.
It’s a pretty standard take that no one can beat the UConn Huskies at the moment, but the pace in this game could be an issue for Purdue. Sure, both of these teams play pretty slowly, each ranking 211th or lower in Adjusted Tempo, but UConn’s defense should reign supreme.
The Huskies have allowed fewer than 60 points in each game in this NCAA Tournament, aside from their game against Alabama, which is one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. The Crimson Tide also launched a lot more 3s than Purdue will here.
UConn ranks in the top 50 in defensive 3-point attempt rate, and Purdue doesn’t shoot many 3s at all. Yes, the Boilermakers shoot over 40% from outside, and if NC State could hold Smith to 1-for-5 from deep, UConn can do the same.
The Huskies also have the great equalizer to Edey down low. Clingan may not be as dominant as Edey, but he’s more agile and has the height to match.
Finally, neither of these teams forces many turnovers, but Purdue’s Achilles’ heel offensively has been turnovers. Smith, Loyer and Co. could have issues with the pressure from Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton.
Take Purdue’s team total under. UConn should keep the pace slow and shut down the 3s while limiting Edey’s impact.
Play it to 69.
