Mississippi State vs Alabama Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Let's take a look at the Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds and make a prediction in our college basketball betting preview for Saturday, Feb. 3.
No. 24 Alabama and Mississippi State battle on Saturday night in a Southeastern Conference rematch from a few weeks ago.
The Crimson Tide won the first meeting in Starkville, 82-74, which is one of seven wins for the team at the top of the SEC standings.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have not won on the road in conference play, owning an overall record of 14-7 and a league record of 3-5.
This feels like a game between two teams moving in opposite directions, but I’m still expecting a great contest at Coleman Coliseum.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Since he was hired to lead the program, Mississippi State head coach Chris Jans has molded his teams to follow his identity, which is to have a suffocating defense that nobody wants to play.
This style of play has led to solid success so far in Starkville. The Bulldogs have defeated two teams ranked inside the AP top 10 this year for the first time since the 2001-02 campaign.
Meanwhile, last season, Jans was one of just 10 coaches in SEC history to amass 21 wins and secure an NCAA Tournament berth in his first year.
As for that defense, Mississippi State ranks inside the top 40 in multiple categories, per BartTorvik, including AdjD (21st), effective field goal percentage (34th) and opponent 3-point percentage (10th).
On the offensive end of the floor, Jans has relied on the high-low game of Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith, who average 15.2 and 16.2 points per game, respectively. The two will need to come up big here and the rest of the season for the Bulldogs to make the postseason again.
Alabama Crimson Tide
After this recent string of results, it might be time to start adding head coach Nate Oats’ team into the conversations for national title consideration.
It has been a fairly easy start to conference play, but the Tide still have solid wins over Mississippi State and Auburn. This winning streak has pushed Oats’ squad into the top 10 of the NET and KenPom rankings.
Winning now will be crucial for the Crimson Tide before they reach the very difficult end of the regular season. In the final five games of SEC play, Alabama has trips to No. 10 Kentucky, Ole Miss and Florida to go along with hosting No. 5 Tennessee.
If you're questioning how good the Tide are, I have a feeling you’ll get more clarity very soon.
Mississippi State vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
The home and road splits for these two teams make Alabama the clear side I want to get behind. I don’t believe the full-game spread or totals are showing any value, but I do see another avenue of attacking this game.
With that said, my best bet is to take the Crimson Tide to cover the first-half spread of -5 or better, which will be posted at books on game day.
If you look at stats for teams on the road in conference play, Mississippi State sits toward the bottom of the SEC in multiple defensive categories, including AdjD (13th), eFG% (11th) and points per possession (14th).
That's not good for the Bulldogs considering they're going up against an Alabama squad that leads the conference in all of those metrics on the offensive end of the floor.
Meanwhile, only Samford averages more points at home in the opening period of games than the Tide, who put up an average of 46.2 in the first half. Oats’ team also ranks in the top 10 in average first-half margin at home at +14.
In five true road contests, the Bulldogs have been losing at halftime in all but one game, owning an average deficit of -8.4. They've also allowed an average of 39.6 points in the first half of those trips.
Alabama was leading in the first meeting in Starkville, and I believe this will happen again in the rematch.
