NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
JMU vs Wisconsin Odds
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | +190 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | -230 |
The trendiest upset of the first round is No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin. Should that be the case?
Let's take a look at the James Madison vs. Wisconsin odds and make a prediction for Friday's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament matchup.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison won the most games in D-I hoops during the regular season, 31 to just three losses. The Dukes have won 13 consecutive games and already beat Michigan State earlier this year.
I'll tell you this: The Dukes won't fear the bright lights.
Mark Byington's squad plays aggressive basketball. The Dukes force turnovers on 19.8% of defensive possessions, which helps the offense gain steam.
James Madison's offense ranks 55th nationally in offensive efficiency while boasting an effective field goal percentage of 54.4%.
James Madison's defense also thrives at forcing tough 3-point shots. Opponents shoot just 28% from 3 against JMU, ranked in the top three nationally.
JMU's defense issues are how often they send opponents to the free-throw line. They rank 248th nationally in free-throws allowed. Sometimes, gambling for steals can lead to being overly aggressive and sending players to the line, which is not ideal in a tourney setting.
Three JMU starters average 12-plus points, led by Sun Belt POY winner Terrence Edwards. The 6-foot-6 Edwards should make an intriguing one-on-one matchup against Wisconsin's AJ Storr. Edwards averages 17.4 points on 42% shooting and 35% from 3.
However, TJ Bickerstaff is JMU's most important player in this game. Wisconsin has a ton of interior length, and JMU needs Bickerstaff to keep pace on the glass.
Noah Freidel is the third double-digit scorer, and he's a total marksman from downtown, connecting on 41% of shots from downtown. James Madison's offense is more dynamic if he's hitting from deep.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin felt like an easy fade in the NCAA Tournament after losing nine of 12 games from February to the end of the regular season.
Then, the Badgers caught fire in the Big Ten tournament, beating top-ranked Purdue to advance to the conference title game.
It's not hard to find what makes the Badgers click. If the offense plays like the 11th-best in the sport, they're a scary team. If not, they are a potential pumpkin in most games.
So, what does Wisconsin need for the offense to function?
A strong showing from guards AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn sets the tempo.
With his athleticism and shot-creation ability, Storr is the most talented Badger since Johnny Davis. Greg Gard doesn't have to design plays to get Storr open because he creates those open lanes for himself. Storr scored 16-plus points in the four Big Ten Tourney games, including 30 against NW and 24 against Illinois.
While Storr shined all year, Hepburn had a rough season, shooting 42% from the field and 29% from 3. He scored 22 points against Purdue, slicing his way into the teeth of the defense and 20 points against the Illini.
Those two make all the difference for the Badgers' elite offense.
Wisconsin is known for slow-paced, typically boring play and defense. One fact remains true, as the Badgers rank 308th in adjusted tempo.
Defense is another story. Wisconsin's defense has struggled, in large part due to its lack of resistance to the 3-point shot. Opponents shot 37.4% from 3. That's not a winning formula for beating anybody, particularly a team that wants to push the pace and is willing to let shots fly confidently.
Once the Badgers guards start scoring, they should get Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl post-up chances inside. Hopefully, the Badgers get the Dukes in foul trouble and live at the line.
That should be the plan for Coach Gard.
James Madison vs Wisconsin
Betting Pick & Prediction
No, I'm not bold enough to drop the moneyline play as my best bet, but I'm comfortable snagging the Dukes as two-possession dogs. Wisconsin shouldn't blow JMU out, even if it does win, which is far from certain.
James Madison should shoot it early and often from 3, and it has no shortage of bench options to keep the starters fresh.
Pick: James Madison +5.5
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