Illinois vs Wisconsin Odds, Pick & Prediction

The Wisconsin Badgers have had quite the fall from grace. They've dropped six of their last eight, and their defensive woes have come to the forefront, much like their opponent on Saturday, the Illinois Fighting Illini.

The Illini haven't quite had the issues Wisconsin has shown, and they have the offensive wherewithal and a pair of potential NBA players in Terrence Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins to make up for any concerns.

Yes, this game will take place in Madison, Wisconsin, but Wisconsin’s defense has taken more lumps than Illinois’ and may showcase further problems against a top-15 KenPom team.

The Illini love to shoot 3s. In fact, they're hitting nearly 35% from outside, while hoisting more 3s than 2s. Hawkins, Shannon, Quincy Guerrier and Luke Goode are a huge part of that.

Wisconsin has one of the worst 3-point defenses in the Big Ten. In conference play, the Badgers rank third-to-last, allowing opponents to shoot 38.2%. The Badgers won't match up well against a team that likes to shoot 3s and is relatively decent at it.

Illinois also has improved its ability to get to the free-throw line. In Big Ten play, the Illini rank third in free-throw attempt rate, while the Badgers rank in the middle of the pack.

Both of these teams rank in the top four in free-throw attempt rate on defense, but Illinois could cut into this advantage, since it has Shannon and Marcus Domask.

Wisconsin usually carries a tremendous advantage on the boards. Defensively, the Badgers rank in the top 10 in rebounding and first in Big Ten play. Offensively, the Badgers are in the middle of the pack.

Illinois ranks in the top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding in Big Ten play. The Illini can crash from every position.

If Illinois can get the Wisconsin bigs in foul trouble, it'll hold a massive advantage on the glass.

Wisconsin mainly looks to score inside; the Badgers are shooting about 53% from 2-point range. Much of this scoring comes on Steven Crowl post-ups.

The Illini allow a good number of post-ups, which will give an advantage to the Badgers' typical offensive scheme. Hawkins may have to log some more minutes in this one, as Dain Dainja is not the best post defender.

The Badgers still have gaps defensively, though. Illinois is much more efficient finishing at the rim, while Wisconsin ranks horribly in defense at the rim.

The Illini can get out in transition, as Shannon is one of the best players in the country on a one-man fast break. Meanwhile, the Badgers are atrocious when defending in transition.

Wisconsin won't turn the ball over much, which seemingly props up its offensive metrics more than it should. Plus, that shouldn't give the Illini many run-outs.

Illinois doesn't manufacture many turnovers, but the Illini can play at a quick pace off a missed shot. Look for this to be its attacking point.

Wisconsin’s defense is too much of a problem to continue backing, and it could lead the Badgers to an early exit in the NCAA tournament.

This isn't the same team that slaughtered Marquette earlier in the year.

Illinois will expose some of the major issues that the Badgers' defense has and should pull out a tight win.

Take the Illini to -1.5.

Pick: Illinois +2.5 (Play to -1.5)