NCAAB Odds, Pick for Houston vs Baylor: Bears at Home?

While most people tab UConn and Purdue as the two title favorites, most metrics sites like Houston more. That’s the reason the Cougars are road favorites in Waco against Baylor — the first time the Bears are home underdogs since 2019.

It’s the case for a good reason. Baylor, like most Big 12 squads, dominates at home, but Houston owns the superior roster.

Houston enters Saturday as winners of four consecutive games after having a basketball-style rugby match against Iowa State earlier this week.

That type of ugly style is exactly how Houston wants to play. Kelvin Sampson wants to lead with his team's defense, but it feels more out of necessity than choice this season.

The Cougars boast the best defense in America, allowing the second-best effective field goal percentage (42%) and the fourth-highest turnover rate (25%.) Opposing offenses can’t generate any easy baskets against the Coogs, and typically force up late-shot clock 3s.

Trying to drive against Jamal Shead is like getting teeth pulled; it’s an unenvious process for opposing guards.

I have concerns about Houston on the offensive end. The offensive efficiency numbers don’t look bad, sitting at 16th in the nation. Conversely, Houston shoots only 48% from 2-point range and 34% from 3 but gets a ton of extra chances from the offensive glass.

That’s nothing new for Houston.

Shead is vying for Big 12 Player of the Year, as he's averaging 13.3 points and 5.8 assists per game. With Marcus Sasser moving onto the NBA, he’s taken on a larger role this season as the Coogs' go-to guard threat.

Also, this is a revenge spot for L.J. Cryer, who heads to Waco for the first time since leaving in the portal.

Baylor couldn’t be any more different than Houston. The Bears win using an electric offense, posting the fourth-best offensive efficiency in the sport.

On defense, Baylor is questionable, sitting 86th in defensive efficiency. It feels like the luster of Baylor's no-middle defense is wearing off, as teams constantly have clean driving lanes toward the basket. Sure, nobody is scoring from the mid-range, but teams exploit the defense on sharp cuts.

The Bears' offense navigates through a trio of guards — JaKobe Walter, RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn.

Nobody is immune to the freshman wall, and the wall has caved in on Walter in the past eight games. He’s shooting below 35% from the field during that stretch. Walter is a surefire top-10 NBA draft pick, so don’t let the rough stretch completely alter your thoughts on him.

Walter needs to shoot the ball better from 3, as he's connecting on just 31% of his looks from deep. He’s the X-factor in the Bears' offense.

Baylor could struggle to keep pace on the glass against Houston's dominant rebounding attack. The Bears rank 186th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and are facing the second-best offensive rebounding squad in America.

You can slow down Houston's offense if you don't allow a bunch of extra chances, but Baylor's rebounding issues could flare up in this one.

ESPN BET is now online and you can use Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.

I’m biting the bullet and snagging Baylor moneyline here. I’m guessing the line will end up around Baylor +120 or PK since home teams typically generate steam.

We already saw this story once, when Houston went into the Phog as a favorite over Kansas. That game didn’t end well for the Coogs.

I’m not saying the Ferrell Center even holds a candle to the Phog, but it’s a massive home-court advantage.

Pick: Baylor ML +126