The DePaul Blue Demons take on the St. John's Red Storm in Queens, NY. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
St. John's is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 150 points.
Here are my DePaul vs. St. John's predictions and college basketball picks for December 17, 2024.
DePaul vs St. John's Odds
| DePaul Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 150.5 -110 / -110 | +600 |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 150.5 -110 / -110 | -900 |
- DePaul vs St. John's spread: St. John's -13
- DePaul vs St. John's over/under: 150 points
- DePaul vs St. John's moneyline: St. John's -900, DePaul +600
- DePaul vs St. John's best bet: DePaul +13 (Play to +12)
My DePaul vs St. John's best bet is on the Blue Demons spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
DePaul vs St. John's College Basketball Betting Analysis
Rick Pitino-led defenses sell out on dribble penetration help, meaning the Johnnies are vulnerable against offenses with five-out spacing and shot-making. When defenses send help early, you can exploit the weak side with cross-court passes to wide-open jump shooters before the scrambling defenders rotate.
Well, Chris Holtmann's Blue Demons run an elite five-out offense.
The Blue Demons are an attack-and-kick, pick-and-pop, catch-and-shoot reliant squad, especially with Davidson transfer David Skogman shooting nearly 49% from 3 at the five.
They rank seventh nationally in 3-point rate (52%) and 11th in 3-point shooting (40%), and they are not due for much negative regression because they rank second nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric and 20th in their Shot Making metric.
This isn’t your father’s DePaul. These Demons can hoop.
That said, I’m worried about their ball handling with Connor Enright settling the table. He has been turning the ball over like crazy in the early going (3.2 per game at a 32% rate), which could hurt against the Red Storm’s chaotic on-ball pressure.
But that might not be a big deal if DePaul's transition defense can hold up.
The Johnnies attempt to turn defense into offense by turning turnovers into fast-break points, and they are elite in both regards (15 turnovers forced, 16 fast-break points and 17 points off turnovers per game).
The Demons haven't played a difficult schedule, but they grade out well above average in transition defense (.89 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile).
Wichita State is another up-tempo squad, and DePaul held the Shockers to only 12 transition points at .71 PPP last Saturday, which gives me confidence it can slow down the Johnnies in the open court.
And if you can slow the Johnnies down, you can shut them down because their half-court offense is a mess.
St. John’s lacks floor spacing and shooting. Kadary Richmond is a stud two-way guard, but he loves to peddle around in the middle of the floor. The Red Storm's top four scorers are shooting under 30% from 3 combined.
As a result, the Johnnies spend too much time sprinting into crowded lanes for low-efficiency, closely-contested mid-range and high-paint jumpers. They rank 266th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate.
Thus, St. John’s is reduced to rim-running cuts and crashing the offensive glass, which isn't a positive because DePaul is among the nation’s best cut-denial defenses (3.4 cutting points per game allowed, third nationally) that ranks in the top 50 nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
St. John's is an elite offensive rebounding squad, ranking 13th nationally in offensive rebounding rate while generating 15 second-chance points per game.
But I think the Demons can keep the Johnnies off the glass — Texas Tech is another elite offensive rebounding squad, and the Blue Demons held the Red Raiders to eight second-chance points on eight offensive rebounds two weeks ago.
Ultimately, DePaul should trade high-efficiency, unguarded 3s for low-efficiency, guarded 2s, and that should be enough to keep this game tight for 40 minutes. Perhaps the Blue Demons earn enough positive shooting variance to earn their first Big East Conference victory in 33 tries (their last one came against Xavier in January 2023).
Our Action PRO Model projects St. John’s as just a 10-point home favorite on Tuesday. EvanMiya and Bart Torvik project the spread between 10 and 11, while Haslametrics projects it closer to five.
There’s plenty of value in these new-look Demons.
Pick: DePaul +13 (Play to +12)
