Creighton vs UConn Odds
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Both the Connecticut Huskies and the Creighton Bluejays play at a slow pace and have all season. At the same time, UConn is 10-7 on overs this season, while Creighton is 6-11.
Donovan Clingan has a chance to be back, but whether he plays or not, this Huskies team still shoots a lot of 3s and struggles guarding the deep ball. Meanwhile, Creighton shoots even more from outside and is OK guarding the 3.
Pace shouldn't be as much of an issue in this game, as there will surely be plenty of 3s sunk.
Creighton Bluejays
Creighton ranks in the top seven in 3-point attempt rate. It's hitting 36% from outside and can get open, too.
UConn struggles immensely guarding the perimeter. The Huskies rank outside the top 100 in Open 3 Rate on defense, per ShotQuality, and opponents are shooting over 34% on the Huskies from outside.
Look for the Bluejays to get any shots they want from 3-point distance, even if typically UConn doesn't yield too many 3s in general.
Creighton also shoots well inside the arc. UConn is much better inside, but if Clingan is questionable or even hobbled (if he plays), this is a major edge for Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Sure, Clingan can come back to his old form, but it could take him a few games, as he only averages 20.8 minutes per game on the year.
One issue with Creighton has been its inability to get to the free-throw line. The Bluejays rank in the bottom 40 of the NCAA, but they rank first in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
Connecticut Huskies
UConn doesn't get to the free-throw line much, but the Huskies rank in the bottom 100 in fouling, so Creighton could get to the line, even on the road.
That said, this game is in Storrs, Connecticut, so the Huskies could be in better shape.
The Huskies rank in the top 20 in Rim-and-3 Rate, per ShotQuality. This means they're incredibly efficient in the shots they take.
This matters because Creighton ranks first in the country defensively in this metric.
Creighton is slightly better at defending the arc — ranking in the top five in defensive 3-point attempt rate — but the Bluejays rank even worse in defensive Open 3 Rate than UConn. The Huskies rank in the top 15 in both Catch-and-Shoot 3s and Off the Dribble 3s.
Again, Creighton doesn't excel defensively on either type of 3-point shot. Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Hassan Diarra all shoot above 40% from deep. Creighton will struggle with guarding all three.
One issue for the Huskies has been defensive rebounding. Knowing that Kalkbrenner might have a chance to exploit the Huskies' frontcourt without Clingan for much, if not all, of the game, could prove to be an issue for second-chance buckets for UConn.
Creighton could get many points on putbacks or kick-outs to increase the scoring.
Creighton vs. UConn
Betting Pick & Prediction
No matter if Clingan plays or not, 3-point shooting will reign supreme in this game. He might be able to prevent offensive boards for Creighton, but on offense, Clingan can be a force for more scoring.
Either way, neither of these teams defends the perimeter too well, even if they can hold opponents to a low 3-point attempt rate.
This should force the total over. Take it to 144.
