We are 22 days away from Selection Sunday, and this Saturday's slate features a few potential Final Four previews.
Our experts have found edges you can capitalize on ahead of these marquee matchups
Read below for our college basketball picks, including a side in a top-five showdown, which highlights our four NCAAB best bets for Saturday, February 21.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Creighton vs. St. John's
By Evan Abrams
Today's Creighton vs. St. John's matchup in the Big East fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database pointing to the Bluejays covering the spread:
This system — "Efficient Dogs" — captures a late winter road or neutral underdog catching a large number against an opponent riding a long winning streak, where the market inflates the favorite because of recent results rather than long term edges.
In February and March, when conference intensity rises and public bettors gravitate toward hot teams, spreads can stretch into double-digits simply because one side keeps winning.
Yet in this game, the 'dog brings an efficient offense that travels.
Even when outmatched on paper, a team that spaces the floor and capitalizes at the line can withstand runs and trade enough efficient possessions to stay within reach.
The narrative says the streaking favorite rolls again, but the offensive math often keeps the efficient 'dog inside an inflated number.
St. John's enters riding a 12-game winning streak, the third-longest active streak in Division I and the longest among high-major programs, making it heavy -13.5 home favorites at Madison Square Garden.
The market has extended the line due to the Red Storm's run, but this setup often overvalues recent momentum.
The Bluejays deliver the exact profile this system targets, as they shoot triples at a solid clip and convert free throws at a high percentage.
Pick: Creighton +13.5
Arizona vs. Houston
By Jim Root
This feels like a brutal schematic matchup for Arizona. Houston’s aggressive defensive scheme is designed to force teams into contested jumpers and long, uncomfortable possessions. Doubling the post is an issue for the Wildcats, as it all but takes away Mo Krivas and Tobe Awaka as options on the block.
The Wildcats want to punish you inside; Houston wants to shrink space, trap ball screens, and dare you to make tough perimeter shots. That stylistic clash leans toward the Cougars, especially in a hyped home spot.
Health matters, too. With Koa Peat out, Arizona’s depth and size up front take a hit in what’s already going to be an absolute war in the paint. This will be a brutally physical clash of titans, and losing a rotation piece in that environment compounds over 40 minutes.
If Dwayne Aristode is also out again, that amplifies even more.
The market has clearly adjusted for Peat and the situational spot, so there isn’t some massive numerical edge baked in.
But Houston still checks more boxes. It's healthier, should be able to slow the tempo, has greater functional depth, and is more comfortable generating offense away from the rim. If the Coogs can force Arizona into a jumper-heavy profile and control the glass just enough, that’s a recipe to create a little separation.
In what should be a grinder, I’ll trust Houston’s scheme and versatility to cover a modest number. I’m laying the points with Houston.
Pick: Houston -5.5
Michigan vs. Duke
By Ryan Minion
Saturday night’s top-five clash will surely be must-watch television as the nation’s top-two defenses will be put to the test, matched up with two offenses that largely operate at a rapid pace, with a ton of points scored in transition.
The scene will be set at a neutral site, Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., which should provide even further intrigue for what could very well be the game of the season. Dusty May’s top-ranked Wolverines faced a gauntlet of opponents early on, dismantling several difficult foes, none of which are on the level of Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils.
For two teams that thrive defensively, it begs the question: Who can better neutralize the primary scoring means in a matchup featuring this much explosive offensive firepower?
Duke has excelled offensively through a motion offense that implements heavy spacing with the ultimate goal of driving to the basket, while also relying on its perimeter guards as fallback options if doubled. This is largely centered on Cam Boozer’s effectiveness in iso situations and his ability to create his own offense by taking it to the basket.
While this has been unbelievably effective for Duke’s offensive flow thus far, Boozer has yet to face a frontcourt with this much size and physicality in the lane. He may have more difficulty creating his own offense with overwhelming size under the basket.
Michigan’s size could result in Boozer being less effective offensively, thus forcing the Blue Devils to attempt more field goals from beyond the arc. However, May’s perimeter defense is exceptional as well.
This is an extremely tough handicap with arguably the two best teams in college basketball. That said, I favor the Wolverines given their interior size and potential to at least neutralize Boozer’s scoring avenues to some extent.
Pick: Michigan ML -150
Illinois vs. UCLA
Illinois can reach a one seed now that UConn has stumbled, and Houston, Iowa State and Arizona are beating each other up in the Big 12. But the Illini need statement road wins for the committee, not just a victory, but a blowout, bury Mick Cronin kind of game.
Kylan Boswell is back and shaking off the rust. I played the Illini against USC earlier this week in a 36-point win. They stayed out in L.A., so the travel is a non-factor, making the 20-minute cross-town drive.
And Cronin’s defense has fallen off a damn cliff this month. Per Bart Torvik, the Bruins are 182nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they now have to contend with Illinois’ pick-and-roll clinic.
Brad Underwood and his staff emphasize matchup hunting, putting opponents' worst defenders in conflict and attacking relentlessly. This Illinois team has all the weapons you could ever want, an unselfish attitude on shot distribution, and an edge from Underwood. I think this is blood in the water time.
The Illini’s KenPom offensive efficiency rating is 132.5, that’s 1.5% better than the second-best recorded rating in the KenPom database going back to 1997, which was Duke's last year.
