Clemson vs Wake Forest Odds, Prediction: Wake Holds Key Motivation Edge

It's time to take a look at the Clemson vs. Wake Forest odds and make a prediction for Saturday's ACC clash.

In arguably the biggest bubble game on Saturday, Wake Forest hosts Clemson in Winston-Salem.

The Deacons need a win in the worst way to have any remote chance of making the NCAA Tournament, so what should we expect here?

Let's dive in.

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PJ Hall, a senior center, leads Clemson's dominant interior. At 6-foot-10, 235 pounds, Hall attacks from the paint and perimeter, which makes him a nightmare for defenses to slow down. He's averaging 18.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, and will draw Andrew Carr on the defensive end.

He holds a significant weight advantage over Carr, so let's see how Wake's starting four-man holds up.

The Tigers make their money on the offensive end, ranking a sharp 19th in offensive efficiency. While Hall is awesome, Clemson's games are often decided on the perimeter, as it attempts 3s on 40% of its field goal attempts.

The starting guards — Joe Girard III and Chase Hunter — combine for 27 points per game. To nobody's surprise, Girard is shooting 43% from 3 and 95% from the free-throw line. He's such a weapon late in games, as teams don't want to send a sure thing to the free-throw stripe.

I'd say Clemson's defense is a tad better than the metrics indicate. There's still a predictive measure to metrics — even at this point. Clemson ranks 57th in defensive efficiency, but it ranks top-30 in 2-point field goal defense.

The struggles come defending the 3-point shots, as opponents connect on 33.5% of their shots from deep. When teams focus on attacking your defense by the 3-point shot, you can expect positive and negative variance.

Wake Forest controlled its own NCAA tournament destiny after pulling off a huge win over Duke. Since then, the Deacs lost to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

You can't pinpoint a similar issue in all three losses; they happened for different reasons. The offense spurted against Notre Dame, the defense allowed 1.28 PPP against Virginia Tech and Wake built a huge deficit against Georgia Tech.

Thankfully for Wake, this game is being played in LJVM Coliseum, where it's lost once this year.

Hunter Sallis is an All-ACC player and a potential first-round NBA draft pick. However, he's struggled mightily in the past three games, coinciding with Wake's struggles. Sallis is averaging 13.3 points on 16-of-42 shooting and 1-of-13 from deep.

That's a rough showing since scoring 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting against the Blue Devils.

A significant portion of Wake's offensive success revolves around Sallis scoring, and him struggling this much makes Wake less lethal.

Despite recent struggles, the metrics still think highly of Wake Forest, as it ranks 26th in KenPom and 27th in EvanMiya. The metrics adore the Deacons' offensive prowess (26th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom).

Wake's X-factor is seven-footer Efton Reid III, who saved the team's interior defense once he became eligible. He's a force in the paint, but Clemson's elite big-man tandem will make his life difficult. Reid is prone to foul issues, so he needs to stay upright.

My best bet here is backing the home Wake Forest Deacons. If Steve Forbes' squad wants any chance of dancing, winning this game is the first piece of the puzzle.

I'm going with Wake for two reasons: It dominates at home and it shoots the 3-point shot well. The latter is very beneficial against Clemson's defense.

Plus, as I mentioned, the Deacs are desperate for a victory, as they're one of the most intriguing bubble teams at the moment.

Pick: Wake Forest -3.5 (Play to -4.5)

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