Cincinnati vs UCF Odds, Pick: Betting Value on Home Team

If you're a fan of hard-fought, defensive games, this is the game for you. The Cincinnati Bearcats will face the UCF Knights in Florida in a massive Saturday showdown in the Big 12.

Let's take a look at the Cincinnati vs. UCF odds and make a pick for this afternoon showdown.

Almost nobody in the country could use a huge win more than the Cincinnati Bearcats, who lost a pair of home games against top-10 opponents in the past week. Those losses have put the Bearcats' NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy with a handful of difficult games left. However, Cincinnati ranks top 40 in both KenPom and the NCAA net rankings, which makes its tourney chances a little more likely.

Cincinnati's offense will have a tall task waiting in front of it.

The Bearcats offense is inconsistent and ranks 77th in offensive efficiency. Cincinnati's lack of a go-to option is another cause for concern. In some games, forward Viktor Lakhin thrives, in others Dan Skillings Jr. puts up numbers and in others Day Day Thomas looks like the guy.

There's no continuity in terms of who scores the ball from game to game, and not having a "guy" is a problem in a must-win conference game.

To nobody's surprise, Wes Miller is coaching another dominant defensive team as the Bearcats rank 17th in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats have a ton of length, which aids to forcing difficult shots. Opponents shoot only 46% from 2-point range (36th nationally) and 32% from 3 (82nd nationally) against Cincinnati.

The Bearcats can rely on one of the sport's best offensive rebounding percentages (38% of misses result in second chances) if their shots don't fall.

I thought UCF's lack of talent would play a bigger role than it has, but talent isn't the end all be all. UCF plays with a tremendous amount of defensive intensity and effort, which has led to wins over Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.

The Knights defense ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency, the best marker in Johnny Dawkins time with the program. UCF flashes a ton of defensive pressure, which has led to a terrific 21% defensive turnover percentage.

On the flip side, UCF is really rough on the offensive end, ranking 166th in offensive efficiency. I don't see many positive things from the Knights offense, which has a 47.7% effective field goal percentage (278th) and an ugly 18% turnover rate.

Coach Dawkins wants his scoring to come from two players, Jaylin Sellers and Darius Johnson, who account for 31 of the team's 72 points per game. Outside of them, the team is pretty bare in terms of scoring.

A bunch of defensive-minded players fill out the rotation, which fits the play style well.

UCF has been a real money maker this season, going 14-9-0 ATS.

The Knights have been dominant at home and I see another home contest falling in UCF's favor. Both teams struggle to score and focus on defense, but the deciding factor could come in the turnover battle, which UCF regularly wins.

Pick: UCF PK (Play to -2.5)

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