TCU vs. SMU Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -660 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 13.5 -110o / -110u | +490 |
The SMU Mustangs head to Fort Worth to square off against the TCU Horned Frog looking to avoid their fourth loss in a row.
Now sitting 3-6 on the season, SMU has not recorded a win against a team ranked higher than 264th in KenPom's rankings.
TCU, meanwhile, has been dominant except for one out-of-character loss to Northwestern State early in the season. Since that loss, TCU has gone 5-0 while winning each game by an average of 19.8 points.
The Horned Frogs and Mustangs have already shared a common opponent early in the season, but they say very different results.
SMU lost by one to the Jackson State Tigers at home last Saturday to give the Tigers their first win of the season. TCU squared off with Jackson State in its last game, beating the Tigers by 27.
Will we see a similar result against the Mustangs?
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU's offense has been highlighted by multiple players who have stepped up at different times when the Frogs needed it most.
Leading scorers Mike Miles Jr. and Emanuel Miller have been the driving force at the offensive end, but JaKobe Coles stepped up in a big way against Jackson State in their absence. The sophomore led TCU with 21 points and became the fifth different player to lead the Horned Frogs in scoring in a game this season.
On defense, I struggle to find something this Horned Frogs team hasn't been great at. TCU is holding opposing teams to an effective field goal percentage of just 43.7%. It also ranks 28th in the nation when it comes to defensive scoring, giving up just 61.1 points per game.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that number drop even lower against an SMU team that has put up just 65.9 points per game, which ranks outside the top 250.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
SMU has shown flashes of being a good team at times. Against Arizona State, it led by as much as 11 late in the first half. But struggles on the offensive end have cost this team one way or another in each of its last three games.
SMU isn't shooting the ball well from anywhere on the floor, hitting just 30.6% from beyond the arc and 39.3% overall from the floor, which ranks outside the top 300.
The Mustangs have also had consistent issues when it comes to foul trouble. As a team, SMU averages 16.6 fouls per game. and while turnovers haven't been a major issue so far, fouls and turnovers could both be game-defining issues against TCU.
The Horned Frogs have been among the best when it comes to forcing turnovers, as opponents are turning the ball over 17.4 times per game against TCU. The Frogs have also drawn fouls often, racking up 17.3 fouls against and taking 15.6 free-throw attempts per game on average.
TCU is good enough to beat SMU without making it a point to draw fouls and force turnovers. But doing so could lead to this one getting out of hand quickly.
TCU vs. SMU Betting Pick
The Horned Frogs' 27-point win over a Jackson State team that beat SMU is even more impressive when you realize they did it without their top two leading scorers.
Miles and Miller are expected to be back for the game against SMU, and while they might not beat the Mustangs by 27, I don't see this being close.
SMU's offense has struggled against inferior competition like Jackson State. Even when they've matched up with a legitimate opponent that ranks inside the KenPom top 100, the Mustangs have been held to 64 points or less.
TCU's defense has been one of the top 25 in the nation, and I fully expect it to hold this SMU team to less than 70 once again.
TCU's offense hasn't been great, but I think it can do enough against an average SMU defense to make its offensive performance worthwhile.
I grabbed TCU at -11 not long after it opened at -10. While the line will likely continue to increase, I'd feel comfortable backing the Horned Frogs as high as a 14-point favorite in this one.
