Memphis vs. Alabama Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 152 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 152 -110o / -110u | -325 |
After dropping two games to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, the Memphis Tigers have not been on anyone’s radar much this season.
They have since gone on a six-game winning streak, with their most recent win coming against Auburn on a neutral court Saturday night.
Meanwhile, Alabama took down the then No. 1 Houston Cougars on the road on Saturday.
Some big news out of the transfer portal came in advance of this game. Damaria Franklin will be available for the Tigers on Tuesday.
Franklin averaged 17.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game for the UIC Flames last season. Already, the Tigers have looked great without him, but he should be an added bonus to a talented team.
This game is on the road, though, and Bama is riding high. The Tide's only loss this season comes against UConn, which is now the new No. 1 KenPom team in the country.
The Tigers have a comparable defense to the Huskies, and with Franklin added into the mix — albeit probably at a lesser extent immediately — they have a ton of value in this spot.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis’ defense runs on producing turnovers. On the season, the Tigers are turning opponents over at a 21.7% clip.
The boost in this game comes from how messy Alabama plays. Yes, the Crimson Tide run at the 25th-fastest Adjusted Tempo (KenPom), but this induces a plethora of turnovers along the way.
The Tide rank 295th in offensive turnover rate at 21.4%, so this will play right into the hands of the Tigers, literally. Memphis, although on the road, will turn over the Tide with ease.
Building off of that, the Tigers carry the 19th-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Bama ranks 13th. The difference is nearly negligible with how messy the Tide can be.
Bear in mind, Houston still turned over the Tide 15 times on Saturday in its loss.
Part of the Tigers’ success on the defensive end comes from the interior presence of DeAndre Williams.
Someone needs to step up to limit Charles Bediako or Noah Clowney, and that will have to be Williams. Both are shooting above 60% on 2-pointers, but the Tide do not carry any other players on the roster who are very efficient inside.
The Tigers may lack some height, but opponents are only shooting 43.2% on 2-pointers against them this season.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s offense primarily runs from the strike and 3-point range. The Tide are shooting 34.7% on 3s this season, while Memphis is allowing opponents to shoot around 30.7%.
That said, Memphis has some tenacious guards who can limit the deep-ball attack from Brandon Miller, Mark Sears and Nimari Burnett, the usual outside shooters for Bama.
Alex Lomax is averaging three steals per game, so expect him to disrupt the Tide backcourt.
Now, Memphis has its own issues with offensive turnovers. It may not occur as often as it does with Alabama, but the Tigers come into this game turning it over at a 19.4% rate (211th in the country).
Bama is turning the opposition over only 16% of the time, though. This is the major difference between these two teams.
The edge goes to the Tigers in this category, and adding Franklin’s 1.3 steals per game (last season) into the mix only boosts their edge.
Memphis vs. Alabama Betting Pick
Both teams have a tendency to foul on defense. Since Alabama draws more contact on offense, it will likely get more calls at home.
Memphis can limit the deep threats from Alabama greatly, and this will be the key to success in this game on the road. If, early on, Memphis is restricting open looks from outside and forcing turnovers, it will keep this game tight.
Expect the Tigers to keep this within the spread. Take them from +6.5 (-110), and play them to 4.5 (-110). The market is overvaluing Alabama coming off of its major win at Houston.
Pick: Memphis + 6.5 (Play to +4.5) |
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