Wake Forest vs NC State Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -102 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | +172 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -120 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | -210 |
As the ACC regular season winds to a close, there is still a lot to be decided in terms of regular season champion and ACC Tournament seedings. The latter applies to both Wake Forest and NC State who sit at 11-6 and 9-7, respectively, heading into Wednesday night's clash in Raleigh, North Carolina.
For NC State, Wednesday's matchup presents an opportunity to keep pace with Clemson, Pittsburgh, Miami and Virginia at the top of the standings and secure the coveted double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
On the other side, Wake Forest will look to get revenge for a 79-77 loss it suffered at the hands of NC State on Jan. 28th. The Demon Deacons had a three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, losing to Miami, 87-96.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Steve Forbes's Demon Deacons have been led by stellar offensive play orchestrated by point-guard Tyree Appleby. The senior point guard has been invaluable for Wake Forest, playing 89.6% of available minutes and leading the team in overall offensive rating at 113.3.
Tyree Appleby BLASTS OFF! 💥
@WakeMBB | @Lil_App04pic.twitter.com/H6sAPcH03J— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) February 18, 2023
Appleby's contribution to Wake Forest's offense is critical to note as he will be matched up with N.C State's Terquavion Smith, who has had a similar level of impact for the Wolfpack on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Smith leads N.C State in steal percentage and fouls drawn per game.
If Smith is able to limit Appleby as he did in the first matchup (4-of-12 from the field), Wake Forest will struggle to string together enough stops in order to keep up with the Wolfpack's offense.
Defensively the Demon Deacons rank 155th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency, allowing 73.9 points per game (267th nationally). These poor defensive numbers can be attributed to Wake's inability to guard the perimeter and create pressure.
Wake Forest is forcing turnovers on just 17.5% of its opponents' possessions, 232nd nationally. This is combined with a perimeter defense giving up 34.7% of its points from beyond the arc, the 61st highest rate in the country.
This poor perimeter defense will be exposed against an NC State offense ranking second in the ACC in 3-point percentage and first in 3-point attempts per game.
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack are riding a high after taking down in-state rival North Carolina on the road. Although this would lead some to believe this is a let-down spot for the Wolfpack, they now return to their home floor where they have been at their best.
NC State has 14 of its 15 home games and hold a 17-1 record as a favorite, which they will be on Wednesday night. On the other side, Wake Forest has won just four of its 10 total away contests.
In addition to exposing Wake Forest's perimeter defense, NC State will also be able to slow down the Demon Deacons through its own perimeter defense.
Defensively, NC State ranks No. 1 in the ACC in 3-point percentage allowed (30.6%), and in 3-point attempts allowed (30.3%). Both of these statistics result in the Wolfpack giving up just 22.5% of their points from beyond the arc.
This is a recipe for disaster for a Wake Forest team scoring 35.6% of its points from distance, the 60th-highest rate in the country.
Without this level of success from the 3-point line, Wake Forest will need to look to create penetration against an N.C State defense allowing teams to score 55.4% of their points on the interior.
Unfortunately, this is an area Wake Forest has struggled, ranking 324th in 2-point percentage point distribution, accounting for just 45.3% of its total points from this range.
Wake Forest vs NC State Betting Pick
this is a good spot to back a Wake Forest team on the road as it matches up against N.C State, which is coming off an emotional victory over an in-state rival. However, there are too many stylistic advantages for the Wolfpack in this matchup.
Defensively, NC State's perimeter defense will limit a Wake Forest offense that is dependent on its ability to create from beyond the arc. Additionally, look for Smith to create frustration for Appleby, who is the heart and sole of Wake Forest's success.
On the other end, NC State's offense ranking 37th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency will be able to create a balanced attack against a Wake Forest defense ranking outside the top-200 in a number of significant categories.
Pick: NC State -4.5 (Play to -6.5) |
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