Ohio State vs. Duke Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 135.5 -108o / -112u | +190 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 135.5 -108o / -112u | -235 |
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge continues on Wednesday night as No. 17 Duke welcomes No. 25 Ohio State to Cameron Indoor in a battle of Power Five heavyweights.
The Blue Devils look to bounce back following a 19-point blowout loss to Purdue. The Blue Devils had won four straight prior to the loss.
The Buckeyes, meanwhile, dropped the opening game of the Maui Invitational before pummeling Cincinnati and taking down Texas Tech.
In a battle between a veteran Ohio State team and a young but extremely talented Duke squad, where is the value? Can the Blue Devils right the ship at home?
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is one of the more difficult teams to judge early on in the season. The Buckeyes took care of business early before their flaws showed in an 11-point loss against San Diego State.
But the Buckeyes have responded with two straight impressive wins, a 28-point blowout of Cincinnati and a win against Texas Tech.
OSU is an experienced team led by junior Zed Key, who continues to take steps forward with each year under his belt. He averages 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game on 64.4% shooting, and can stretch the floor, too.
Justice Sueing is back after suffering a season-ending injury and Chris Holtmann added transfers Isaac Likekele (Oklahoma State) and Sean McNeil (West Virginia) in the offseason.
Likekele isn't great on the offensive end, but is a strong defender and ball handler. Meanwhile, McNeil has limitless range.
The key to the Buckeyes' success, though, has been the freshmen duo of Brice Sensabaugh and Bruce Thornton. Sensabaugh takes 36.4% of shots while on the floor and averages 15.8 points in just 18.2 minutes per game. Thornton, on the other hand, averages 9.2 points and 2.7 assists.
Both are shooting the 3 ball at a 46% clip or better and carry offensive ratings inside the top 120 of all Division I players.
On the defensive end, Ohio State is 20th in 3-point defense and eFG%. The Buckeyes don't force any turnovers (318th in the country), but are a hard team to break down.
Opponents often find the most success inside. In its last three games, Ohio State has given up a 54% clip on 2-point attempts. Cincinnati and Texas Tech combined to shoot 25% from 3 in eventual Buckeye wins.
We could see a heavier dose of Felix Okpara against Duke's size, seeing as he's the only player above 6-foot-8 in this rotation.
Duke Blue Devils
This Duke team is unlike that of years past. Rather than being an offensive juggernaut, the Blue Devils' defense is its moneymaker.
Jon Scheyer has a very inexperienced but talented group on his hands. Duke is sixth in average height and has one of the best frontcourts in the country.
Three players stand at 6-foot-10 or taller. Freshman 7-footer Kyle Filipowski has seamlessly transitioned to Division I play and leads the team in points (15.4) and rebounds (9.4).
Northwestern transfer Ryan Young ranks fourth in offensive rebounding rate and shoots 69.4% from the floor.
Also, No. 1 recruit Dereck Lively II has been a menace around the rim. Despite his struggles on the offensive end, the 7-foot-1 center has an elite 10% block rate.
Duke is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and ranks 41st in eFG% on defense. This is a disciplined team that doesn't foul much and is hard to break down. Only one team (Purdue) has broken the 70-point barrier against the Blue Devils in eight games.
Duke ranks inside the top 50 in 3-point defense and is not too far behind inside the perimeter (83rd). The Blue Devils are defensively sound, which hasn't come as a surprise.
But offensively is where the issues have come.
The Blue Devils rank 271st in eFG% and 302nd in 3-point offense. In their pummeling against Purdue, they shot just 2-for-19 from 3. Against Kansas, they shot 3-for-21.
Jeremy Roach has taken a huge junior year leap in the early going, but Duke's freshmen have all struggled to adjust aside from Filipowski.
Dariq Whitehead (5.2 PPG) and Tyrese Proctor (6.8 PPG) have both shot under 31% from the field, and Lively is used on just 11% of possessions.
But with the Blue Devils' offensive woes come plenty of second-chance opportunities and a disruptive defense that often leads to transition.
This is a young team with no shortage of talent that will improve as the season goes on.
Ohio State vs. Duke Betting Pick
This is the perfect bounce back opportunity for Duke.
The size advantage here is just too stark. The trio of Young, Lively and Filipowski should feast on the boards and around the rim against this Ohio State team that lacks size in the frontcourt.
This is just too much to ask from Key. The 6-foot-8 big not only will have to carry the lion's share on offense, but he'll be attacked inside, too. He battled foul trouble against San Diego State, and the same could be true here with the variety of athletic bigs Duke can throw at him.
Duke's defense should disrupt Ohio State, too. While the Buckeyes are experienced, the size should cause struggles, both on the perimeter (Duke is 42nd in 3-point defense) and inside.
I'm not worried about this Duke offense that has struggled in the early going. Not only does it have a huge home court advantage at Cameron Indoor, but it's the better team here.
Expect the Blue Devils to roll in this matchup between top-25 brutes.
Pick: Duke -4.5 (Play to -6) |
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