Maryland vs. Louisville Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | -950 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | +610 |
Louisville looks to end its nightmare open to the season with its matchup against undefeated Maryland.
But that task won’t be an easy one, as the Cardinals have lost their first six matchups of the season. The group suffered three separate one-point losses in its first three games to Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State.
They return home from the Maui Invitational after a trip to forget. The Cardinals lost all three of their matchups to Arkansas, Texas Tech and Cincinnati by a combined margin of 87 points.
Now they have to match up against a Maryland program that has rolled through its first six opponents. The Terrapins have won all six games by 16 or more points while covering the spread in five of those competitions.
We have two teams trending heavily in opposite directions. How will that affect the outcome of this clash between Power Five programs?
Maryland Terrapins
The Terrapins have been thriving this season on both ends of the floor. The group has scored 70 or more points in each game while averaging 93 points over its last three matchups.
And that has come against some solid competition that includes Miami (FL) and Saint Louis.
The offense ranks 17th nationally in efficiency, according to KenPom. The Terps have struggled from the perimeter — hitting just 31% this season — but they have made up for the lack of outside shooting with dominant interior scoring.
Maryland has dominated the paint, hitting 61% of its 2-point field goals this season (11th in the country). The group has been astounding on the glass, cleaning up 38% of its misses for extended possessions.
The starting five has done the most damage this season for Kevin Willard’s group. It’s an experienced starting unit that is composed of four seniors and a sophomore. Four of the five are averaging above 14 points per game.
The defense has been strong through the first month of the season, ranking 41st in defensive efficiency. The Terps shut down the perimeter and have held opponents to just 43% from the field, which ranks 32nd in the country.
Louisville Cardinals
Very little has gone right for the Cardinals this season, and the issues have started on the offensive end.
The most pressing concern has been the turnover woes. The group has coughed the ball up on 26% of its offensive possessions, the eighth-worst rate in the nation. Through the first six games, the Cardinals have turned it over an average of 18 times per contest.
Shooting the basketball has been equally as ugly. The program is hitting 30% from 3-point territory (285th) and 45% on 2-point attempts (301st).
The Cardinals have one scoring threat in senior guard El Ellis, who is averaging 17 points per game. Outside of him, no one else is scoring in the double figures. But more importantly, no one on the roster is shooting better than 46% from the field.
The one positive on offense is the Cardinals' ability to get to the charity stripe. Louisville has gotten to the free throw line at the 61st-best rate in the country and has found 23% of its points from there.
Defensively, the group has had issues defending 2-point field goal attempts. Despite owning the ninth-tallest roster in the country, the Cards are allowing opponents to hit 56% from inside the perimeter which is 311th nationally.
Much of that has come in transition due to the offense’s inability to take care of the basketball.
Maryland vs. Louisville Betting Pick
This is a nightmare matchup for Louisville at this point in the season.
The Cardinals are 0-6 straight up and have yet to cover a spread. After an embarrassing three matchups in the Maui Invitational, things are only slated to get worse, with matchups against Maryland, Miami and Florida State looming.
Louisville has had a serious issue taking care of the basketball, and its only source of offense has come from the free throw line. But Maryland can defend without fouling and will find many extended possessions in this matchup through the turnover differential.
Maryland owns one of the most experienced starting groups in the nation, ranking 14th in Division I experience. Now the Terps match up against a young Louisville program that is rebuilding — the Cards rank 337th in the same category.
I expect Maryland to turn this matchup into a rout early. The Terps have been dominant at scoring inside the paint, and that’s been the Louisville defense's Achilles heel this season.
The Terrapins are averaging 92 points per game over their last three matchups, and I expect that trend to continue Tuesday night.
Pick: Maryland -11.5 (Play to -13.5) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
