Villanova vs Memphis Odds, Pick
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The Battle 4 Atlantis concludes on Black Friday, and although the field is not quite as loaded as the Maui Invitational this year, it has still been a fantastic Feast Week event.
The opening round featured a double-overtime game between Stanford and Arkansas. One finalist — Villanova — needed OT to squeak past North Carolina. And the other finalist — Memphis — needed clutch free-throw shooting late to survive both Michigan and the feisty Razorbacks.
The Wildcats and the Tigers are the only two squads still standing in the field. Two long, versatile rosters will square off – but though similar in structure, these teams are vastly different stylistically.
Here's a Villanova vs. Memphis pick and prediction.
Villanova Wildcats
Putting a disappointing loss to Penn in the rearview mirror, Villanova has ripped off three straight resume-building wins. The Wildcats have won ugly (57-40 over Maryland) and with a fireworks display on offense (85-69 over Texas Tech).
Second-year coach Kyle Neptune carries some lingering question marks, but there's no questioning the talent on this roster.
Lineup bookends Justin Moore (lead guard) and Eric Dixon (center) lead the way. Both multi-year Villanova stalwarts, Moore and Dixon can score inside or out, punishing mismatches against defenses that cannot match their speed or strength.
Time and again, Neptune allowed either Moore or Dixon to isolate on the right block against UNC.
Of course, the supporting cast is loaded too. Transfers Tyler Burton (Richmond), TJ Bamba (Washington State) and Hakim Hart (Maryland) have all played over 90 college games already, opting to finish extremely productive careers on the Main Line.
Former touted recruits Jordan Longino and Mark Armstrong have both shown useful improvement in their games, as well.
Nova’s greatest strength is its malleability. The Wildcats can switch everything defensively and invert the floor on offense by posting up Moore. They have shooters all over the court, capable of punishing defenses that overhelp when Moore or Dixon win their one-on-one matchup.
Best of all? This is an elite free-throw shooting team. The Wildcats currently rank fifth nationally in FT%, sinking 82.9% of their freebies.
Memphis Tigers
Contrasting with Villanova’s slow, patient attack, Memphis is a downhill battering ram that wants to get out in transition and barrage the rim. The Tigers rank 48th nationally in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, and have a long, athletic wing players who are devastating in the open court.
Wing David Jones poured in points at both DePaul and St. John’s, and he's continued to do so for the Tigers. The quick-twitch lefty lives at the free-throw line, and his improved 3-point shooting – currently hitting a dazzling 48.4% of his triples on six attempts per game – makes him an absolute nightmare to guard.
Fortunately, he's not the only sniper on this roster. Jaykwon Walton has proven lethal throughout his college career, and freshman/coach’s son Ashton Hardaway cashed in five triples against Michigan in the tournament’s opening round.
Primary ball-handlers Jahvon Quinerly and Caleb Mills are less efficient from long-range, but both are terrific at beating their defenders and forcing defenses into rotation.
Over the years, Penny Hardaway’s teams have become known for their elite interior defenses. This version is no different, as Malcolm Dandridge, Nick Jourdain and Jordan Brown have the requisite size and/or bounce to make scoring at the rim a challenge.
Indeed, despite playing a solid schedule thus far, Memphis is lapping the field in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. Per Hoop-Math, Memphis foes have made just 35.5% of their rim attempts, the lowest mark in the country. The second-place team — Tulsa — is at 40.5%. Easy buckets don't exist against these Tigers.
Villanova vs. Memphis
Betting Pick & Prediction
The battle for control of the pace in this matchup will be pivotal.
If Villanova can keep Memphis out of transition and force the Tigers to execute against a set defense, it heavily favors the Wildcats. But if the Tigers can force the issue with pressure and turn the game into more of a track meet, they could wear down the Wildcats, who had to play 45 minutes on Thursday to reach the title game.
Early in his tenure, Hardaway faced a bevy of questions about his coaching ability. He's largely answered them, though, making the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years and falling in tight battles against the No. 1 overall seed (2022 Gonzaga) and an eventual Final Four participant (2023 FAU).
Neptune, on the other hand, must still show he can maximize a roster stuffed to the brim with versatility and experience. Is it possible Hardaway has the coaching edge in this one?
However, the person I trust most in this matchup is not a coach. Instead, it's Moore, Villanova’s fifth-year heart-and-soul. He and the rest of the Wildcats have taken tremendous care of the ball this year, and if that continues against Memphis’ pressure, Villanova can keep this game in the half court.
So, despite coming off an overtime game and questions about Neptune, I’m riding with the Wildcats.
Pick: Villanova -2.5
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