College Basketball Odds, Pick for Syracuse vs NC State

I feel like most people assumed the Syracuse Orange and NC State Wolfpack waved the white flag on the season.

Not so fast.

Syracuse managed a decent week, with a win over North Carolina before falling to GA Tech, while NC State pulled out a mammoth upset over Clemson.

Syracuse finally had an excellent offensive performance in the win over North Carolina, only to drop a lousy 60 points against the Yellow Jackets. The Orange couldn’t connect from deep, shooting only 4-for-25 (16%) from 3-point range. That’s a much different tale than what happened against North Carolina. The lack of consistent shooting is a season-long trend contributing to ACC play struggles.

Syracuse’s guard paved the way for a double-digit home victory in the first head-to-head meeting. The dynamic duo of JJ Starling and Judah Mintz combined for 45 points on efficient shooting nights, dicing up the typically strong NC State defense.

Starling's scored 15-plus points in eight consecutive games. He's played outstanding lately.

Syracuse usually wins when the guards score. For example, the two combined for 45 points against top-10-ranked UNC last week. The roster is relatively thin and there aren't many scorers outside the two stud guards.

Overall, Syracuse's offense is mediocre, ranking 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency. It'll need a stronger effort than that to compete on the road.

Syracuse's main strength is forcing turnovers on defense, posting an impressive 20% turnover percentage. That's been the key in many of the Orange's 16 wins, but it won't come easy against NC State's offense, which ranks fifth nationally in turnover rate.

NC State looked dead in the water against Clemson, trailing 61-49 with 11 minutes remaining until a furious comeback handed the Pack its first quadrant one victory in 2023-24.

Could that win jolt the Pack in the season's final month? Could they sneak into the bubble conversation?

The Wolfpack closed as 6.5-point road dogs against the surging Tigers and got a pristine performance from guard DJ Horne, who hit the game-winner. Horne is coming off a five-game stretch where he's scored 24-plus points in each contest, leading his team to a 3-2 stretch.

While Cuse has Starling and Mintz, NC State could have the best guard on the floor in Horne.

NC State’s offense finally showed signs of life offensively in the Clemson win, tallying 1.15 points per possession. The issue? Guards outside of Horne did next to nothing — Jayden Taylor scored 12 off the bench, but that’s it.

The good news? DJ Burns and Mo Diarra combined for 25 points against the typically strong Clemson interior.

Burns and Diarra could feast against Syracuse’s frontcourt, probably the ACC’s worst. Maliq Brown is a good player, but injuries have forced him into the starting “center” role at only 6-foot-8. The Orange struggle to protect the rim are the worst rebounding team in the conference.

Burns is known for his footwork and passing, so I'm looking for him to find perimeter shooters if Syracuse doubles the post.

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The total feels high since both teams rank outside the top 95 of KenPom's offensive efficiency.

Sure, we've seen NC State and Syracuse score 80 points recently, but that's the absolute ceiling.

We won't see some 95-90 track meet; a defensive slog is much more likely.

Neither team can shoot it well, and neither has enough pure scorers.

We should see a sloppy game in Raleigh.

Pick: Under 151.5 (Play to 150)

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