Saint Mary’s vs Pepperdine Pick & Prediction: Gaels to Cruise

Saint Mary's duels Pepperdine on Thursday, February 29 at 11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Here's a Saint Mary's vs Pepperdine pick and prediction.

The Saint Mary’s Gaels are two games away from getting through West Coast Conference regular-season play unscathed and the final road obstacle comes against the Pepperdine Waves.

Randy Bennett is unquestionably the most underrated coach in the country. The Gaels play a very boring style of basketball as they focus on defensive stops and low-tempo games, illustrated by the fact that they rank 10th in defensive efficiency and 356th in adjusted tempo.

Saint Mary’s forces a ton of tough shots and boasts an elite 44.4% effective field goal percentage allowed (third nationally). The Gaels are also the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the sport.

However, Saint Mary’s took a hit when versatile forward Joshua Jefferson suffered a season-ending injury. Without Jefferson, Harvard transfer Mason Forbes plays more and Alex Ducas occasionally shifts to the four.

Saint Mary’s offense runs through guards Augustas Marciulionis and Aidan Mahaney. Marciulionis initiates the offense and averages over four assists with only one turnover per contest. The best Saint Mary’s teams have always had a steady playmaking guard and Marciulionis is that guy.

Saint Mary’s regularly overachieves based on its talent level, but Pepperdine routinely does the opposite. The Waves have recently sent multiple players to the NBA, but still haven’t sniffed an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Waves allow a ton of clean looks and have an ugly 55.8% effective field goal percentage allowed (356th nationally.) In general, Pepperdine’s offense is poor and ranks 307th in defensive efficiency.

At least the offense offers some watch value. Michael Ajayi is one of the WCC’s best scorers — averaging over 17 points and six rebounds per game. Ajayi loves scoring from the mid-range and shoots 48% from 3 on nearly three attempts per game. Jevon Porter and Houston Mallette also average over 15 points per contest. Mallette is a big-time perimeter shooter, connecting on 41% of his shots from 3, while Porter flashes versatility.

Typically, when I see KenPom showing value (Pepperdine +12 on his site), I taker a deeper look at that side. However, I just can’t back the Waves here. Everything Saint Mary’s does well, Pepperdine doesn’t do well.

I have no reason to bet against SMC here, so I'll lay the hefty amount of points.

Pick: Saint Mary's -15.5 (Play to -16.5)