New Mexico vs Boise State Odds & Prediction: Bet Short Underdog

The Mountain West race will come down to the end to see who will capture the top seed in the conference tournament in Las Vegas.

The Boise State Broncos hold a share of first place with three games remaining as they welcome in the New Mexico Lobos to ExtraMile Arena on Saturday night.

Boise State is riding a four-game winning streak, but the final three-game gauntlet against New Mexico, Nevada and San Diego State will see what the Broncos are made of.

The Lobos jumped out to a 6-2 start in Mountain West play before riding a roller coaster of late by going 3-4 in their last seven games.

Let's take a look at the New Mexico vs. Boise State odds and make a prediction for Saturday's Mountain West clash.

Richard Pitino’s team picked up some huge early conference wins over San Diego State, Utah State and Nevada at home.

However, three of their past four losses came at the Pit in Albuquerque, including a shocking 78-77 setback to Air Force last Saturday, which marked only the second MWC win for the Falcons. The Lobos closed as 18.5-point favorites and shot 3-of-16 from 3-point range in the loss.

New Mexico has found a way to a 9-6 record in conference play so far following an 8-10 record last season, but the offensive numbers for the Lobos are in the middle of the pack.

The Lobos rank sixth in 3-point shooting (33.8%), seventh in 2-point shooting (51.9%) and seventh in free-throw shooting (73.1%) in conference play.

New Mexico has balanced scoring at the top of the lineup with three players in the 14-16 points-per-game range.

Jaelen House has been the Lobos’ top player for the last three seasons while posting 15.5 points per game this time around. House has scored in double-figures in all but two conference games, which coincidentally both came against Air Force.

The guard was limited to eight points on 3-of-11 shooting from the field and owns the worst shooting percentage from the floor in his career this season (37.8%).

Donovan Dent (15.4 PPG) has improved his shooting this season from 3-point range by vaulting from 23.5% last season to 38.9%. Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.8 PPG), meanwhile has seen his scoring numbers dip nearly five points from last season while converting on 12-of-35 attempts from the floor the last three games.

The Lobos have been listed as an underdog four times this season and have picked up only one win and cover, which came in an 83-82 victory at Nevada in February.

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Boise State once sat at 7-4 following back-to-back road losses to Colorado State and Utah State. The Broncos have cleaned up of late with four consecutive wins, but they came against the bottom four teams of the league in Wyoming, Fresno State, Air Force and San Jose State.

Boise’s conference strength of schedule is the worst in the Mountain West, as seven of its 11 victories have come against the four squads it defeated during this hot streak.

However, the Broncos have defeated a pair of top four teams in Nevada and San Diego State but also lost twice to Utah State.

In the first matchup with New Mexico in Albuquerque in late January, the Broncos defeated the Lobos, 86-78, as 10.5-point road underdogs. Boise’s leading scorer, Tyson Degenhart, was limited to four points, but Max Rice lit up the Lobos for 35 points, including seven 3-pointers.

Boise State has owned New Mexico over the years by winning seven of the past eight meetings, as the lone Lobos’ victory came in overtime at home in January 2023.

Since the four-point effort against New Mexico, Degenhart has averaged 21.8 points per game in his last seven contests while hitting 50-of-78 shots from the floor.

The Broncos rank higher than the Lobos in every major offensive category in MWC play. Boise State is converting 35.4% of its 3-point attempts (third), 53.6% of its 2-point tries (fourth) and sits atop the league in free-throwing shooting at 76%.

In five conference games as a favorite of six points or less, the Broncos have posted a 1-3-1 against-the-spread mark, losing to UNLV and Utah State outright while edging San Diego State by one point.

This line tells us a lot. Boise State is in a solid position to finish with the top seed in the conference tournament but enters the game as a short favorite.

The Broncos have taken care of business against the league's bottom-feeders, but this is a big motivational game for the Lobos after losing in the first matchup at home.

New Mexico still owns a high KenPom ranking despite sitting in sixth place in the MWC. Let's grab the Lobos as an underdog.

Pick: New Mexico +4 (Play to +2)