Iowa vs Maryland Odds, Pick for Wednesday

How often do teams separated by one spot in KenPom play one another? Not often.

But one of those times is Wednesday when Iowa (56th) faces Maryland (57th).

Iowa nearly entered this game on a two-game losing slide — until a furious late-game comeback propelled it over Minnesota. Once Dawson Garcia went down injured for the Gophers, the game completely changed.

One of the biggest reasons why? The dominance of a freshman big man.

Say what you want about Fran McCaffery, but he has a knack for finding and developing under-the-radar recruits.

The latest example is Owen Freeman. Few freshman bigs succeed in the Big Ten like Freeman, who's averaging over 10 points and six rebounds in 21 minutes per contest. Freeman dropped a stellar 14 points, 14 rebounds, four blocks and four assists in the win over the Gophers on Sunday.

As usual, Iowa's offense is one of the most efficient in college hoops, sporting the 11th-best unit in America, according to KenPom. Coach McCaffery shifted the team's offensive style, as Iowa is attempting triples over 10% less than last season. Part of the shift comes from the dominance of Freeman and mid-range maestro Ben Krikke.

Outside of Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix, nobody else shoots better than 35% from 3. Sandfort is the real shooting option on Iowa's roster, as he's converting on 38.6% of his attempts from deep.

Tony Perkins has developed into a very nice player for Iowa. He's averaging a team-best 15.6 points and 4.4 assists per contest. Perkins is another strong example of Iowa's in-house development, waiting his turn before turning into the team's top scorer as a senior.

Like most Iowa teams in the past decade, defense is the root cause of the Hawkeyes' problems. Sitting at 163rd in defensive efficiency makes the dominant offense look less impressive.

Maryland couldn't be more different than Iowa.

While the Hawkeyes play at a rampant pace with an elite offense, the Terps slow games down and propel themselves to victory with the fifth-ranked defense in college hoops (per KenPom).

On offense, the Terps are posting the worst offensive efficiency in the Big Ten (183rd nationally).

The Terps struggle in two pivotal areas on offense: turnovers (18% giveaway rate) and shooting (28% from 3). Those poor numbers won't result in offensive success very often.

Some of the turnovers stem from Jahmir Young trying to turn nothing into something. It's not his fault, though; Young is the only capable shot-creator on the roster, averaging over 20 points and four assists per contest. He's shooting over 36% from 3 and 90% from the charity stripe.

A hometown hero, Young is the only reason Maryland stays competitive in Big Ten play.

Maryland's roster features only two other players who average double-digit points — Julian Reese and Donta Scott. Reese offers a very reliable post presence (13 PPG, 10 RPG), while Scott shoots over 34% from 3. While that's a middle-of-the-pack percentage, Scott is the Terps' second-best shooter.

Despite all the struggles, Maryland has lost just three times at home this season. One game came against Purdue, which is a given for most teams.

The other two losses came by five total points against Michigan State and Rutgers.

I'm expecting a solid performance from the Terps in College Park against an Iowa team that could struggle with Maryland's athleticism.

Pick: Maryland -4