Penn State vs Indiana Odds, Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
The Big Ten is tough from top-to-bottom. The conference has no true, easy games, even though Penn State and Indiana won't make the NCAA tournament.
Both have looked competitive this year at times, and Indiana will host this matchup at the legendary Assembly Hall in Bloomington.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has looked competitive in Mike Rhoades' first season in Happy Valley, winning some notable conference games and staying competitive in some losses. It wasn’t going to happen over night after losing virtually all of last year's roster from an NCAA tournament team, but Rhoades is handling it well.
Stopping Penn State's offense could be difficult if you can't limit guard penetration. The duo of Kanye Clary and Ace Baldwin Jr. has propelled the Nittany Lions to numerous Big Ten wins, including over top-10-ranked Wisconsin.
The potential saving grace for Indiana? Clary, Penn State's leading scorer, missed the last game and is questionable again. If Clary is missing, expect more usage from D’Marco Dunn, who scored 14 in the win over Rutgers.
On offense, Penn State is a high-volume, perimeter-shooting squad, attempting triples 40% of the time. Although it attempts a ton of 3s, it only connects 30% of the time. The shooting gets worse if Clary is out since Dunn isn't at the same level.
The two high-minute guys who need to shoot better are Leo O'Boyle and Zach Hicks. Both attempt a few 3s per contest and make fewer than 30% of their shots. That's not good enough from the stretch-four spot.
Rhoades comes from Shaka Smart's havoc-style teams at VCU, and the Nittany Lions embrace that same style, forcing turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions.
While grabbing giveaways is great, it's the only good thing Penn State's defense does. Sometimes, the gambling leads to open looks if the defense can't recover. That plays a role in Penn State's terrible 53% 2-point field goal defense.
Penn State needs a consistent diet of turnovers and 3s to win a Big Ten road game. Those are hard enough to come by, so playing a familiar style is important.
Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers finally ended a three-game losing streak on Tuesday against Iowa, but it came at a cost. Malik Reneau suffered a seemingly serious injury in the contest, which is a major blow to the Hoosiers on both ends.
A burgeoning sophomore, Reneau has made a mark for Indiana, averaging 16 points and six rebounds per contest. In Reneau's stead, Mike Woodson has a plethora of options. He could play Anthony Walker more or move Mackenzie Mgbako to the four, which puts Kel'el Ware at the five and Anthony Leal into the starting lineup.
Woodson knows the Hoosiers can't really shoot the ball. That's why Indiana only attempts 3s on 27% of its field goal attempts. If Leal enters the fold, things could look different, giving Indiana four reliable shooters next to Ware. Leal scored 13 bench points in the comeback win over Iowa, earning himself more minutes moving forward.
Ware, a former five-star recruit and potential first-round pick, could thrive with Reneau out. Ware works better as the lone big man and could dominate against Penn State's brutal interior defense. He scored 23 points against Iowa, including an emphatic slam over Hawkeyes freshman Owen Freeman.
Moreover, Indiana wins games when its defense stands out. In four of the Hoosiers' five conference wins, opponents scored fewer than 70 points. Keep the opponent below 70, and win using defense.
Penn State vs. Indiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although Indiana isn't a top-75 team in KenPom, it still wins consistently in Bloomington.
Woodson's squad has covered the spread in four of its five conference home games. The most recent example of a similar spread is Indiana laying five against Minnesota a few weeks ago. The Hoosiers won 74-62.
I'm rolling with the home team.
