Ohio State vs Minnesota Odds, Pick for Thursday

The upcoming Big Ten matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Minnesota Golden Gophers promises to be an interesting affair with a decent amount of conference implications. Minnesota will look to defend its home-court advantage (14-3 at home this season), while Ohio State seeks its first road victory of the season (0-7).

The Buckeyes' season has been marked by a relatively efficient offense as they rank 39th in adjusted efficiency. However, their middle-of-the-pack standing in effective field goal percentage (169th) suggests challenges in converting possessions into high-quality scoring opportunities.

Despite those shooting struggles, the Buckeyes have managed to effectively maintain possession, ranking 52nd in turnover percentage, and have shown proficiency in free-throw shooting (32nd in free-throw percentage), a crucial factor in close games. Over its past 10 games, Ohio State has gone 3-7, including 0-5 on the road and 3-2 at home (including a dramatic win over Purdue).

Defensively, the Buckeyes have major room for improvement, with their adjusted efficiency coming in at 106th and their effective field goal percentage allowed ranking 114th. Their ability to force turnovers and secure defensive rebounds has been lacking (265th in turnover percentage and 178th in defensive rebounding percentage), areas Minnesota could potentially exploit.

The Buckeyes' defense will need to step up to contain a Minnesota team that has shown it can score effectively.

Minnesota's offense boasts a solid effective field goal percentage (34th), indicative of its ability to select and make high-quality shots. This, combined with their 74th-ranked adjusted efficiency, positions them as a threat from multiple areas on the floor. However, ball security has been a concern for the Gophers, with their turnover percentage ranking 219th, a vulnerability Ohio State could look to capitalize on.

Despite the turnovers, Minnesota's offensive rebounding (93rd) and an average free throw rate (109th) suggest the Gophers have multiple avenues to maintain offensive pressure, though their free throw percentage (307th) remains a glaring weakness.

Defensively, the Gophers have outperformed the Buckeyes in adjusted efficiency (70th) and effective field goal percentage allowed (54th), showcasing their ability to disrupt opponents' shooting. While Minnesota also struggles to force turnovers (233rd), their slightly better metrics in defensive rebounding, compared to Ohio State, could play a crucial role in limiting the Buckeyes' second-chance points, an essential factor in a game that promises to be tightly contested.

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

Considering Ohio State’s significant home vs. road discrepancy and Minnesota dominance at home, laying 3.5 points with Minnesota to cover the spread appears to be the best bet. After Ohio State’s impressive home win against Purdue, I'm expecting a letdown on the road.

Minnesota has more efficient shooting and if it can keep Ohio State off the charity stripe, it should be able to control this game. Take the Golden Gophers -3.5 and expect another imposing crowd to help Minnesota continue its run as the best team in the nation at covering the spread (22-3 ATS) this season.

Pick: Minnesota -3.5