NCAAB Odds, Pick for Maryland vs Wisconsin

The two coldest teams in the Big Ten will match up Tuesday in Madison, as the hometown Wisconsin Badgers host the Maryland Terrapins.

Thankfully for Wisconsin fans, Maryland is one of the worst shooting teams in the sport. That's been the case all season, and it's only gotten worse in conference play.

The Terps shoot only 28% from 3, ranking a ghastly 346th nationally. It's hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you can't shoot at all, despite what Mississippi State did last season. Barring a miracle, Maryland will fall short of the NCAA Tournament this season.

The Terps have three scoring options: Jahmir Young (21.2 PPG), Julian Reese (13.6 PPG) and Donta Scott (11.2 PPG). That trio accounts for over 80% of the team's offensive output.

Young, in particular, is incredible and can take over a game using his dominant scoring prowess. We've seen him totally shift games in Maryland's direction multiple times this year. The bad part? Young could score 40 and Maryland still could fall short of 80 points.

The secondary options of DeShawn Harris-Smith, Jordan Geronimo and Jahari Long do next to nothing on the offensive end. Entering the season, Maryland expected some real scoring from Harris-Smith, but he's shooting only 17% from 3.

Maryland's defense is a lockdown unit, however, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency nationally. When one side of the floor is legitimately awful, it's huge for one side to pick up the slack. The Terps' defense limits opponents to 44% from 2-point range. Teams don't get off many 3s against Maryland either (29% of shots come from deep), so they usually settle for contested 2s.

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Only three weeks ago, Wisconsin looked in the discussion for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the NCAA's first bracket reveal Saturday placed the Badgers as a 4-seed. So, what happened? The Badgers lost five of their past six contests, including games against Michigan, Rutgers and Iowa.

It's not like Wisconsin didn't play well at times during the losing skid, leading Nebraska and Iowa by double figures until both teams picked up offensive steam and pulled out wins. Relinquishing sizable leads becoming a team's DNA is a struggling indicator. No matter how well you play, it feels like a snakebite situation for the Badgers.

Wisconsin's offense has fallen off the face of the earth since Jan. 27, ranking 121st in offensive efficiency during that span, according to BartTorvik. Early on, Wisconsin's offense carried it to a 16-4 record, but it's now been the reason for losing five of six games. Can we call Wisconsin's offense a fluke early and now it's back to Earth, or is it somewhere in the middle? I lean the latter.

The Badgers have connected on 29% of 3s during that stretch, and AJ Storr is only 3-of-16 from 3 in the past five games. He's the one player on Greg Gard's team who can create offense out of nothing, so he needs to find his confident shooting stroke again.

How can Wisconsin's offense get out of purgatory? I think running the offense around Tyler Wahl could turn things around. He's having a phenomenal fifth season, averaging 11.3 points on just 7.7 shots per game. He's developed into a truly dominant post option with strong footwork and feathery touch. If Wahl establishes the paint, it could open up shooters.

Another issue is Wisconsin's awful 3-point defense, as opponents shoot 36% from 3 against the Badgers.

I feel like Wisconsin could just show up and dominate Maryland in the Kohl Center to re-engage the fanbase heading into March. Nobody will care about Wisconsin's February slide if the team finishes strong during the regular season.

The Badgers' defense will slow down Maryland, especially if Chucky Hepburn can contain Young. It'll come down to which version of Wisconsin's offense shows up at home. I'll bet on the good version coming back with a vengeance.

Pick: Wisconsin -6.5 (Play to -8)