Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Odds, Pick
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
How often will we see Kentucky facing Vanderbilt when the Commodores are the ones on an active winning streak? Probably not often. Kentucky dropped a pair of games in Rupp Arena last week against Florida and Tennessee, while Vanderbilt is coming off a win against Missouri.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky could enter the contest short-handed, as D.J. Wagner has missed each of the past two games. While his presence could've made a difference, Kentucky's issues extend beyond Wagner's injury. Kentucky ranks 102nd in defensive efficiency and that number is only getting worse by the game. The Wildcats simply can't stop anybody, particularly from outside. The Vols and Gators scored over 90 points each in Rupp Arena, fueled by strong perimeter shooting outings.
Kentucky's ceiling will continue to decline unless the defense makes some real strides in the next month.
The good thing? John Calipari's offense is one of the best in college hoops. The legendary Calipari received plenty of flack for Kentucky's lack of offense over the years. Now, Kentucky plays the 14th-quickest tempo in college hoops and shoots over 40% from 3. The last time we saw Kentucky play an electric offense like this was the 2017 season with Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox.
This year's pair of standout guards are Antonio Reeves and Rob Dillingham. Reeves is averaging over 19 points per game on 49% shooting and 42% from 3, as he's developed into a legitimate All-American candidate. Plus, Dillingham is arguably the most skilled scorer in America. While I say he's the most skilled, that doesn't mean "best." Dillingham is a creative scorer from all three levels, making him a tough cover every night.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt has the SEC's worst offense and ranks 238th in the country in offensive efficiency. The Commodores shoot only 28% from 3 while attempting perimeter jumpers on 41% of field goals. That's a stark contrast from the elite shooting of Kentucky.
Only one player (bench guard Isaiah West) shoots above 33% from 3. The team's top scorers, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence, have plenty of burst and explosiveness but can't shoot. Manjon is the one to watch here. He's averaging 14 points and four dimes per contest. Vanderbilt will need strong play from Manjon to stay competitive against a Kentucky squad that needs a win.
The biggest hindrance in the Commodores' game plan in this matchup is poor perimeter defense. Vanderbilt allows one of the highest 3-point shooting percentages at 36.7%. That's a total nightmare against the hot-shooting Wildcats.
Coach Jerry Stackhouse finally picked up his first win of league play. I assumed it would come eventually, but is beating Missouri even encouraging? Vanderbilt struggled in three home matchups against ranked SEC teams in Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama. The only single-digit loss came to the Crimson Tide, while the Tigers and Vols throttled the Commodores in Nashville.
Maximize your Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt action with our BetMGM bonus code.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Betting Pick & Prediction
KenPom lists Kentucky as 10-point road favorites, while the current line sits at Kentucky -8. The market is shying away from Kentucky following two home losses, but I see a great spot to back the Wildcats.
Laying nearly double-digits is a lot in a conference road game. Kentucky should enter motivated and ready to down Vanderbilt in Nashville. Back the better shooting team.
