Duquesne vs Dayton Odds, Pick for Tuesday

The Dayton Flyers have a clear edge over most teams in the Atlantic 10, but they've still lost a pair of conference road touts against VCU and Richmond.

The Atlantic 10 has talented teams, however, it's shaping up like a one-bid league if the Flyers zoom through the conference tournament. Teams like the Duquesne Dukes getting hot and causing problems for Dayton in the A-10 tourney is the only real chance of the league getting two bids to the Big Dance.

The Dukes became the league's most disappointing team with an 0-5 start to conference play. Duquesne won 20+ games a season ago and returned its two best players. Some content is needed, though, as the Dukes dealt with injuries during the losing skid.

Now at full health, Duquesne has won five of six games, including a pair of wins over top-100-ranked St. Bonaventure.

The Dukes' offensive success relies on hitting shots from the perimeter, as they attempt triples on 42% of field goals while connecting on 32% of those attempts.

Guards Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III are the only two double-digit scorers for head coach Keith Dambrot, and it's not even close. The issue? Both shoot below 42% from the field and 33% from 3. The Dukes' offense needs their two best players or it'll turn into a long night.

While the Duquesne offense sputters at times, its defense saves the day regularly. Coach Dambrot's defense ranks 74th in defensive efficiency, while focusing on deploying defensive pressure to force turnovers. Duquesne forces turnovers on 18% of defensive possessions, which ranks first in conference play.

The biggest key for the Dukes in this one is stopping Dayton's best player, DaRon Holmes II.

Thankfully, they have plenty of bodies at the forward position — Tre Williams, Dusan Mahorcic, David Dixon and Fousseyni Drame — to make Holmes' day a long one.

VCU didn't mind fouling Holmes, and he went just 5-of-13 from the stripe. I have to imagine the Dukes operate the same way.

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Dayton is the clear favorite in the A-10 and a stone-cold single-digit seed in the NCAA tournament.

The season hasn't come without obstacles, though. The Flyers lost against two very good conference teams while narrowly escaping against St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and UMass by five or fewer points. Dayton isn't dominating teams like it did during the 2019-20 season — the most successful Flyers season until this year.

Speaking of the 2019-20 season, Holmes is Anthony Grant's best player since Obi Toppin. Holmes should grab All-American honors, as he's averaging 19.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. He's a total force on the interior and has a newfound perimeter scoring game.

The constant doubles by opponents on Holmes leads to a barrage of 3-point shots. Dayton takes 3s on 44% of its field goals and connects on an elite 39% of shots from deep. That number is largely from a trio: sharpshooter Koby Brea (47%), Kobe Elvis (37%) and Nate Santos (43%.)

On defense, Dayton is fine with allowing perimeter jumpers since Holmes dominates the interior and Javon Bennett causes problems for opposing guards. However, 38% of the opponents' shots come from deep, and only 31% of them land. Those are fairly favorable numbers for the Flyers.

Like I said earlier, Dayton doesn't blow teams out.

It's not because Dayton isn't some dominant squad, but it's play isn't conducive for high-scoring touts. The Flyers rank 347th in Adjusted Tempo — one of America's slowest paces.

I think the Dukes' guards hit enough shots to keep the game within single digits.

Pick: Duquesne +10 (Play to +9)