Thursday’s 4 NCAAB Best Bets

Thursday's college basketball slate is spotlighted by No. 3 Purdue hosting Rutgers and No. 21 Washington State taking on No. 4 Arizona.

We highlight one of those games in this piece, so dive in below for college basketball best bets and odds, including our staff's four picks for Thursday, February 22.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By John Feltman

This looks like a massive bounce-back opportunity for Purdue at home on Thursday.

The Boilermakers embarrassingly lost to Ohio State on the road on Sunday and now look to change the narrative around college basketball that they’re no longer contenders for a national title.

Despite not covering against Rutgers in their first matchup, I believe the Boilermakers' offense will show up tonight. Let's face it — the Scarlet Knights are a completely different team on the road compared to when they play in Piscataway.

Although the Scarlet Knights rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, their offense continues to be the reason they can’t take the next step as a basketball team. Their effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rank in the bottom 60 nationally among all teams.

The Boilermakers are still one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, and even if slight shooting regression still looms, that’s more than enough offense to blow out the Knights.

And of course, you’ll always stand a chance with defending Wooden Award winner Zach Edey patrolling the interior.

Matt Painter's team is sick and tired of hearing all the criticism, and the market opened this number big for a reason.

Expect a rout at Mackey Arena on Thursday.

Pick: Purdue -15.5 (Play to -16.5)

By Matt Gannon

Rutgers and Purdue have sneakily become Big Ten rivals over the last few years, as the Scarlet Knights have more than held their own against the Boilermakers.

Rutgers has won four of its last five games and has somewhat revamped its postseason outlook.

The entrance of Jeremiah Williams into the lineup has worked wonders for Steve Pikiell and Co. The Scarlet Knights have plenty of work to do if they want to play in the Big Dance, but Williams should give the Knights hope.

Purdue is coming off an embarrassing loss at Ohio State and will surely be locked in to rebound here. The public loves Rutgers against Purdue, and I’m sure it’ll be running to grab the points for this one.

But I’m leaning the other way.

The rebound spot for Purdue — along with the overwhelming advantages the Boilermakers own on the offensive glass — leads me to believe we’re in for a vintage Boiler blowout.

Mackey Arena will also be a very tough atmosphere for the Scarlet Knights to overcome. If Rutgers doesn’t crash the glass on defense, Purdue will have plenty of second-chance opportunities, which could turn this game ugly quickly.

Lay the big number with the home team.

Pick: Purdue -15.5 (Play to -19)

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By Patrick Strollo

After winning two straight games, SMU will look to keep its hot streak going as it starts a Florida swing with Florida Atlantic up next on the docket.

The Mustangs have picked up two consecutive wins, and I think this game on the road offers a chance to back SMU in a spot where betting markets aren’t giving it the love it deserves.

I’m not convinced SMU will pick up the outright road win, but I do think that 6.5 points offers compelling value for the matchup between these two AAC programs.

Coming into this game, both teams are evenly matched, with Florida Atlantic and SMU ranked 36th and 39th by KenPom, respectively.

Interestingly, Bart Torvik interprets the data a little differently and has SMU ranked as the superior team, with a ranking of 35th compared to 62nd for Florida Atlantic.

Irrespective of the ranking differential, the Mustangs are a competent basketball team and should pose a stiff challenge for the Owls.

Overall, SMU is the more efficient team, ranking 44th and 40th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, respectively.

Florida Atlantic has the better offense in this matchup (21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency), but its prowess on that end of the floor should be offset by a relative weakness on defense (148th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency).

SMU has an excellent shooting defense (sixth nationally in effective field goal defense), and I think that should help keep this game close. The Mustangs should be able to keep FAU at or below its season average in terms of effective field goal percentage, which will keep them within striking distance for an outright road win.

My model projects SMU as a 2-point underdog in this contest, and I recommend grabbing the 6.5 points that are available.

If you’re looking for a higher variance play, I also see value on SMU moneyline at +225, but my conviction is on the spread bet.

Pick: SMU +6.5 (Play to +6)

Check out the new user BetMGM bonus code offer before placing your bets on the Mustangs.

By D.J. James

Minnesota is 21-3 against the spread this season. At home, its ATS record moves to 16-1. It has a great opportunity for yet another cover against Ohio State on Thursday, which just beat Purdue in its last outing.

The Golden Gophers knocked off Rutgers in their last outing and should have the ingredients to take two in a row.

Now, it’s tough to bake in incentive when analyzing these teams, but Minnesota needs this win to keep its NCAA tournament hopes alive.

It can start by continuing to shoot and hit 3s.

OSU doesn’t allow a ton of 3-point chances, but opponents are shooting nearly 36% against the Buckeyes from outside. Minnesota is even better at limiting 3-point opportunities on defense, and the Gophers are shooting 36% from deep when they have the ball.

Ohio State doesn’t take as many 3s, so trading 2s for triples may not be the best route to remain in the game.

Additionally, Minnesota is shooting better from 2-point range and is defending slightly better than OSU inside the arc. Ultimately, it should have an edge on the interior, too.

One issue for the Gophers this season has been turning the ball over. In conference play, Ohio State has been much better at maintaining control of the ball, but the Buckeyes don’t turn other teams over consistently on the other end. This should be a manageable problem for Minnesota.

Take the team that can shoot and defend better to -5.

Pick: Minnesota -3.5 (Play to -5)