3 NCAAB Best Bets for Thursday

We only have three ranked teams in action on Thursday in college basketball, but the late-night slate will be on fire with UCLA, Washington State, Saint Mary's and Gonzaga in action.

Below, we have NCAAB best bets and our staff's three picks for Thursday, February 29.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By John Feltman

Memphis’ game against East Carolina on Thursday is the definition of a sleepy spot.

First off, Penny Hardaway's lone chance to make the NCAA tournament is by winning the AAC tournament in a couple of weeks.

The Pirates were embarrassed by Rice over the weekend, and considering they don’t have much to play for themselves, I think they show up at home with a big effort.

As bad as they’ve been thus far, they can catch the Tigers napping.

Defensively, the Tigers have been somewhat lackluster, particularly when defending the perimeter. The team allows a lot of 3-point attempts, and although the Pirates have struggled with their deep shots this season, they’re due for some positive regression.

Meanwhile, there’s major regression looming for the Tigers, per ShotQuality. Their 3-point shooting is due for a decline, and they’re not the same team without Caleb Mills.

The Pirates have a couple of pieces — notably guard RJ Felton and Ezra Ausar — who are more than capable of exploiting the Tigers out on the perimeter.

Let’s face it — Hardaway’s teams are always full of talent, but they underperform consistently.

Although many people anticipate an easy win for the Tigers, I believe this is a bad situational spot. It remains unclear whether the Tigers are invested in the game, and their defensive weaknesses may work against them.

Pick: East Carolina +4.5 (Play to +3)

Want to learn about the best North Carolina sports betting apps before betting launches in the state on March 11? Find out more.

By Patrick Strollo

Washington hosts UCLA in Seattle on Thursday as it looks to even the season series while simultaneously bouncing back from a loss over the weekend.

Revenge should be on the mind of the Huskies, as they enter this game after losing to UCLA, 73-61, earlier in the season. In that game, UCLA capitalized on turnovers, scoring 26 points off of them while shooting 42.9% from beyond the arc.

I expect to see a better showing from Washington in this game, as it returns home from a two-game road trip. Plus, it’s unlikely the Bruins will shoot the lights out, as they did the last time these two programs met.

The angle here is more of an indictment of what UCLA has struggled with this season, especially as it hits the road.

The Bruins have struggled from the field this season and enter this game with one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation, ranking 359th on 45.7% shooting.

The problems for UCLA from the field are two-fold.

First, it struggles mightily on 2-point attempts, ranking 342nd in the nation with a 45.0% make rate.

Secondly, it’s better from beyond the 3-point line but attempt 3-pointers at the lowest rate in the nearly defunct Pac-12.

I anticipate poor shooting causing a mean reversion based on the stats in the previous meeting between these two schools.

Washington will have to overcome a pesky UCLA defense, but after two strong offensive showings on the road against Arizona State and Arizona, the Huskies should be able to outgun the Bruins at home.

In addition to being the better and more accurate offense, Washington plays at a lightning pace relative to UCLA, which I believe will be the differentiator, particularly in the second half.

My model projects the fair value for the spread in this game at 6.5 points, and it’s in agreement with our Action PRO Projections, which forecast Washington as a 5-point favorite.

With the current line at 2.5 and public money favoring UCLA, I recommend laying the chalk at -3.5 or better, as the more accurate home team should prevail.

Pick: Washington -2.5 (Play to -3.5)

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By D.J. James

The San Francisco Dons “host” the Gonzaga Bulldogs at the Golden State Warriors’ Chase Center on Thursday.

The Dons have already lost to this Zags team in late January, but San Francisco should have other plans for Thursday.

The Dons like to shoot from outside. Gonzaga’s perimeter defense is pretty weak, allowing opponents to shoot almost 34% from 3-point range, while allowing a high number of 3-point attempts in general.

San Francisco has hit 35.1% of its 3s this season and made 11 triples against this Gonzaga team in the teams' last outing. The Bulldogs may give up a few more treys in this one.

Gonzaga is usually a very efficient offensive rebounding team. San Francisco struggles with crashing the offensive glass, so the Zags should have a slight edge here. However, the Dons rank in the top 15 in defensive rebounding, so this will at least cut into Gonzaga’s perceived advantage.

Now, San Francisco’s perimeter defense has been questionable this year. However, the Zags like to get the ball inside and work; they don’t take a ton of 3s like the Dons.

That said, San Francisco has a relatively strong interior defense, holding opponents to under 48% from 2-point land.

Additionally, San Francisco shoots well inside the arc. Yes, the Bulldogs will have an edge in scoring in the paint, but the Dons can negate that and trade 3s for 2s instead.

Take San Francisco in this game to +3.

Pick: San Francisco +3.5 (Play to +3)