The NFL Playoffs takes center stage this weekend, but there's still college basketball betting value to be had.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets, including our staff's three top picks for Saturday, January 13.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
San Diego State vs. New Mexico
By D.J. James
San Diego State eked out a victory over San Jose State on the road on Tuesday. Now, it'll have its hands full with 13-3 New Mexico.
UNM has three losses, and all of them have come against decent teams. The Lobos have yet to drop a home game, though, which will come into play here.
SDSU has some strong road wins over Gonzaga, SJSU and San Diego, but UNM is arguably better than all three.
The Lobos can also contend on defense, ranking in the top 40 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. San Diego State ranks 18th, but the issue for the Aztecs this season has been interior defense.
UNM ranks 351st in a 3-point attempt rate. It gets to the line often, as does SDSU. However, the Aztecs are yielding a 49.2% 2-point rate on defense, which isn’t great against an offense that goes inside often.
Adding on, the Aztecs rank in the bottom 30 in points per possession at the rim, per ShotQuality, which also doesn’t bode well for this matchup.
Offensively, SDSU relies on getting to the free-throw line. However, UNM should cut into this usual edge the Aztecs hold.
New Mexico is the better rebounding team between these two. While the Aztecs can usually beat opponents on the glass, don’t expect it to happen in this matchup.
Finally, UNM turns opponents over more than the Aztecs. Sure, SDSU doesn’t turn it over as much as some teams, but the Lobos still hold the advantage in this area, which will allow them to score in transition.
Take the Lobos at -1, and play them to -3.
Pick: New Mexico -2 (Play to -3)
Kentucky vs. Texas A&M
By Stuckey
I think this is probably the bottom of the market on the Aggies, who have lost four of six.
Meanwhile, the Cats have been on an absolute tear — with six straight wins both straight up and against the spread — so I think we're pretty close if not at the top of their value.
We should get the best effort from Texas A&M in this desperation spot, especially from star guard Wade Taylor IV, who had a very off night against Auburn. He's usually excellent in these big spots, so I expect a big day from the preseason SEC Player of the Year.
From a matchup perspective, Texas A&M can exploit Kentucky's weaknesses defending pick-and-roll action (20th percentile, per Synergy) and have success on the offensive glass. The Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounding rate, while UK's defense ranks in the eighth percentile on offensive put-backs.
That will also help limit Kentucky's opportunities to get out in transition, where it's absolutely deadly.
There's also plenty of data suggesting looming regression that should work in the favor of Buzz Williams' bunch. While Kentucky ranks in the 99th percentile on guarded jumpers, Texas A&M ranks in the second percentile nationally (eighth percentile on unguarded jumpers).
It's hard to find a bigger disparity.
While Texas A&M doesn't profile as a good shooting team, it's nowhere bad as the 26% (355th) it's shot from beyond the arc, including 17% in SEC play.
Pick: Texas A&M -1.5 (Play to -2)
Seattle vs. UT Arlington
The Seattle Redhawks will look to get back on track after dropping the first of a three-game road trip against UTRGV, 81-80, in overtime on Thursday.
Normally a stout defensive unit, Seattle allowed its second-highest point total of the year against UTRGV.
Now, the Redhawks will face UT Arlington on Saturday, and I think this presents a good opportunity to buy Seattle in a bounce-back spot.
Two anomalies occurred against UTRGV, and I expect both to revert back to the mean. The first was that the defense fell victim to a strong 3-point shooting effort by the UTRGV offense, and the other was its own poor shooting from deep.
The Redhawks still have an excellent defense, and that’s why I like backing them in this spot against the Mavericks. They have the 37th-ranked defense in the nation in terms of AdjD, allowing just 96.7 points per game.
The Redhawks are limiting scoring opportunities with excellent 3-point defense. Even after the loss on Thursday night, Seattle still ranks sixth in the nation in 3-point defense, allowing the opposition to connect on just 27.1% of their attempts.
UT Arlington is a middle-of-the-pack 3-point shooting team (ranking 155th nationally in 3-point offense at 33.1%), and I expect it to have a tough time against this in-your-face defense.
Another area where Seattle has been excellent all season is on the defensive glass. It ranks 30th in the nation in defensive rebounding (75.3%), which helps mitigate UT Arlington’s strong offensive rebounding presence (31.6%).
Our Action Network PRO Projections have this line projected at Redhawks -4.5, offering a 10.5% edge to the available market of -1.
I like backing the Seattle defense to settle in on this road trip and find its footing against UT Arlington.
Its excellent 3-point defense and strong defensive rebounding will be enough for the Redhawks to pick up the road victory.
