Auburn vs Tennessee: Odds, Pick for Game of Night

The Auburn Tigers take on the Tennessee Volunteers on Wednesday, February 28 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Below, we have Auburn vs. Tennessee odds and a pick.

The Auburn Tigers are coming off of a key win over Georgia on Saturday and now travel to Knoxville, Tennessee — one of the toughest environments in the SEC.

The Tennessee Volunteers are riding a four-game winning streak, but this is by far their toughest matchup in conference play since beating Alabama in January. These teams are incredibly balanced and boast top-10 defenses, which should keep the game within arm’s reach for the visiting Tigers.

Auburn loves getting fouled and being able to shoot free throws. The Tigers are shooting almost 76% from the line and rank in the top-50 in free-throw attempt rate. The Volunteers are at home and could get some beneficial calls, but since the Volunteers foul nearly as much as the Tigers while on defense, despite not getting to the free-throw line much themselves, the Tigers could ultimately hold the free-throw advantage on the road, which rarely occurs.

Auburn is hit-and-miss from deep, but is still shooting above 34% as a team, which is comparable to Tennessee’s 3-point hit rate. The Tigers aren't typically taking open 3s, but Tennessee yields one of the highest 3-point attempt rates in the country. Jaylin Williams being questionable doesn't necessarily help this argument, but the Tigers should have enough 3-point artillery to be cause for concern for the Volunteers’ perimeter defense.

Auburn doesn't turn the ball over much on offense and can force opposing defenses to make mistakes. Tennessee is very much the same, so if anything, the turnover margin should be about even at the culmination of this matchup.

Tennessee can rebound on the offensive end, but struggles with rebounding defensively. Well, the Tigers have the same issue. Jonas Aidoo versus Johni Broome should be an exciting post matchup. Those two will battle on the glass, though they should cancel each other out for the most part.

Tennessee hoists more 3s than the Tigers, but Auburn ranks in the top-85 in 3-point attempt rate and is holding the opposition to less than 30% from outside. Yes, Tennessee is a bit better at getting open from deep, but since these two are comparable offensively, Auburn could hold the edge with its perimeter defense.

Also, Tennessee isn't as efficient on the interior as Auburn. The Volunteers rank 75th in 2-point rate, while the Tigers rank 28th. Both teams are in the top-10 in 2-point field goal rate on defense, but Auburn is better at guarding the rim. Tennessee tends to take a ton of mid-range jumpers, but Auburn is the best team in the country at defending those types of attempts. Simply put, the Tigers have a stop to virtually every aspect of Tennessee's attack.

Tennessee should win this game, but this spread should also be tighter. Williams should account for about a point, but Auburn can keep this game within a possession. Auburn should own the free-throw edge and can defend slightly better. Neither team has an edge with turnovers or rebounding, so take the Tigers to +4 without Williams and +3 with him.

Pick: Auburn +6 | Play to +4 Without Jaylin Williams, +3 With Williams